Grounded in reality

Last week, when it was announced that the Cardinals had signed Sidney Ponson, CardNilly noted that Ponson seemed to fit in with the Cardinals’ philosophy of inducing groundballs. Indeed, Ponson’s groundball/flyball ratio in 2005 was 1.82, which would have ranked him 10th had he pitched enough innings to qualify. CardNilly then went on to make a brilliant observation that GB/FB could be Walt Jocketty’s fetish stat, a la Billy Beane and OBP during the “Moneyball” era.

Cardinals Diaspora notes that the Cards’ rotation, all groundballers to varying degrees throughout their careers, become even more extreme groundballers under the tutelage of Dave Duncan.

Those posts piqued my interest in how the top 20 groundballers from last season were paid. Specifically, I wondered if there was an inefficency in the pitching market to be exploited the way Beane and the PalmPilot Posse exploited the market for cheap on-base guys. This is what I found:

player	05 G/F	05/06 salaries
Brandon Webb	4.34	715K/2M
Jake Westbrook	3.13	2.9M/4.25M
Derek Lowe	2,92	7.5M/9M
*Mark Mulder	2.74	6M/7.75M
Tim Hudson	2.50	6M/4M
A.J. Burnett	2.42	3.65M/7M
Jamey Wright	2.06	550K/FA
Chris Carpenter	1.98	2M/5M
Greg Maddux	1.96	9M/9M
Cory Lidle	1.79	3M/3.3M
Jason Johnson	1.74	4M/4M
Victor Zambrano	1.66	2.1M/~3M
*Mark Redman	1.64	4.25M/4.95M
Carlos Zambrano	1.62	3.76M/~5M
*Andy Pettite	1.62	8.5M/17.5M
Matt Morris	1.60	6.25M/5M
Freddy Garcia	1.60	8M/9M
*Horacio Ramirez	1.60	370K/~500K
*Nate Robinson	1.59	355K/~450K
Jason Marquis	1.59	3M/4.5M

Looking at the numbers, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious correlation toward high groundball tendencies and being low on the pay scale. The cheaper guys tend to be either limited in service time (Webb, Ramirez) or reclamation projects (Carpenter). Given his previous groundball tendencies, Ponson certainly qualifies as a cheap reclamation project. If Duncan’s tutelage can help Ponson the way it has helped other Cardinals starters, his signing could be considered one of the steals of the offseason.

Other interesting tidbits: Only five of the top 20 groundballers are lefthanded. For some reason, I thought there would be more. Also, only two in the above table pitched for a team that plays in a noted hitters park: Wright in Colorado and Lidle in Philadelphia.

OPS per million dollars (OPM)

Given the minor uproar over the Juan Encarnacion signing, I thought it would be fun to invent a new “metric”: OPM, or OPS per $1M. I picked only those right fielders currently under contract for 2006 and listed their salary for 2006 and projected OPS.

I’m not trying to glean any meaningful information from this table… I just thought it would be fun to see how this year’s value signings (Encarnacion, Jacque Jones) stack up against the well-compensated right fielders.

player	06 salary	06 prOPS	OPM
Jones	3M	.761	254
Encarnacion	3.5M	.701	200
Jose Guillen	4M	.788	197
Jermaine Dye	5M	.809	162
Trot Nixon	6.5M	.838	129
Mark Kotsay	7.05M	.762	108
Shawn Green	8M	.820	102
Geoff Jenkins	8.5M	.841	98.9
Vladimir Guerrero	12.5M	.919	73.5
Bobby Abreu	13M	.882	67.8
Ichiro Suzuki	11M	.738	67.1
Gary Sheffield	13M	.854	65.7
Magglio Ordonez	15M	.791	52.7

Why Juan and not the other?

I was away from the computer for most of Friday, and thusly found out about the Juan Encarnacion signing by an e-mail from a dear friend. In that e-mail, my friend asks if I could help him understand why the Cardinals are paying a $5 million average to Encarnacion while the Mariners signed Matt Lawton for, at most, $1.5 million. (Lawton signed for a $400K base; incentives could push that to $1.5M.)

Chris, that’s a good question. Could the Cardinals have gotten better value with Lawton at $1.5M than they got with Encarnacion at $5M? Their basic career offensive numbers are as such:

Encarnacion .268/.316/.440/756, 128 HR, 541 RBI, nine seasons
Lawton .267/.368/.418/786, 138 HR, 630 RBI, 11 seasons

The discrepancy in OBP is striking. Encarnacion set a career full-season high in 2005 with a .349 OBP on 41 walks; his previous career high had been .330 (29 BB) in 2000. Lawton, however, has consistently posted a much higher walk rate throughout his career, with eight seasons of 54 or more BB, with a career high of 91 in 2000.

In the field, particularly in right field (where Encarnacion will play for the Cardinals and where both have a majority of starts), Lawton has a slight edge in career range factor:

Encarnacion 1.93, 1.73 lgRF; .986 FP, .981 lgFP
Lawton 2.15, 1.79; .984, .981

So in this admittedly skin-deep analysis, Lawton shows to be the slightly better all-around player on a career basis. And at $400K-$1.5M this year, Lawton seems to be the far better bargain.

So why did the Cardinals pass on Lawton? Age is one factor; Encarnacion will be 30 on opening day, while Lawton will be 34. But perhaps more importantly, the pass on Lawton can be boiled down to this:

Steroids.

Lawton tested positive for the juice at the end of 2005 and then explained his situation earlier this week. I think the Cardinals are rather sensitive in that regard, given Mark McGwire’s shameful “testimony” at the congressional hearings in March and that Tony La Russa (and Walt Jocketty to a lesser extent) still goes out of his way to protect McGwire and enable his denial. Management wanted no part of any controversy regarding players who used or were “rumored” to have used steroids. But on the other hand, the team also signed noted miscreant Sidney Ponson, who had just gotten out of jail the day he signed and who has well-documented struggles with weight, anger and alcohol. Are multiple DUIs and assault convictions less bad than being named a steroid user? Especially when there was/is greater need in the outfield than in the rotation?

Meanwhile, the team gave $15M over three years to a lesser offensive talent, albeit one who represented the best of what was left on the free-agent market. It seems, as my friend pointed out, that after watching the top talent pass them by, the Cardinals scrambled to overpay lesser players just to fill their numerous holes. It’s like doing your Christmas shopping on the Eve: “Well, this will have to do.”

Aruba’s most wanted

The Cardinals have written another chapter in their bizarre novel titled “How I Spent My 2005 Offseason.” This chapter is called “Sidney Ponson.”

That Sidney Ponson. Since it’s so near Christmas, I’ll spare you the horror of listing his stats for the past two seasons.

Indeed, Sir Drinks-a-lot signed a one-year deal with St. Louis on Wednesday. Reports say it will pay him a $1M base, with $1.5M more possible through incentives based on the number of starts, as well as a full no-trade clause. On hearing the news, my first thought was, “Dude, Sidney M.F. Ponson?” My second thought was, “Well, a trade for an outfielder must be in the works.” That’s the conventional wisdom, anyway. My third thought is that maybe management isn’t keen on gift-wrapping the No. 5 for Anthony Reyes, and that Ponson represents competition of sorts for that No. 5, and as such, Jason Marquis might not be going anywhere. But as I prepare to post this, my latest thought is that if the club is giving him incentives based on the number of starts AND a full NTC, then they are 100% committed to having Ponson in the rotation. That puts Marquis on the block or Reyes in the minors.

But if a trade for an outfielder is in the works, one would have to think the Reyes boy is more attractive than Marquis in any deal. He’s young, cheap and has a much higher ceiling than Marquis, the main name that has been thrown around various rumor musings. Marquis stands to make $5M or so in 2006 (with impending free agency after ’06), either in arbitration or in a one-year deal to keep him out, so any deal involving him is not likely to bring an impact OF in return unless multiple players are involved, complicating things.

We here at The 26th Man are pretty simple, so for fun, let’s throw out some possibilities. I tried to pick teams that not only had an outfield surplus but also holes in their rotations. Some were one or the other. And, of course, these are my best guesses; some proposals maybe woefully but unintentionally lopsided. As always, feel free to comment. Here goes:

Marquis to the Brewers for Carlos Lee and cash: Straight up, this deal would involve a rather large payroll bump for the Cardinals: The Brewers picked up El Caballo’s 2006 option at $8.5M, while Marquis will get about $5M. Like Marquis, Lee is a free agent after the 2006 season. Given that, one could infer at least similar or better stats in 2006 to what he put up in 2005: .265/.324/.487, with 32 homers and 114 RBI. He also hit 31 HR each in 2003 and 2004. He hits righties and lefties roughly the same, and in 2005 hit quite a bit better away from Miller Park. He’s not particularly handy with the leather, but man, would he look good in the Cards’ cleanup spot.

Milwaukee has a couple of kids in Dave Krynzel and Brad Nelson (as well as Gabe Gross, whom they received in the Lyle Overbay trade) that could step in for Lee. As for Marquis, he could be Milwaukee’s No. 3 behind Ben Sheets and Doug Davis, and ahead of Chris Capuano and Dave Bush, also obtained from Toronto in the Overbay trade.

Marquis and cash to the Mets for Victor Diaz and a prospect: I’m gonna pretend I’m Ken Rosenthal and propose this one solely on the basis of geography. Marquis is from Shaolin (Staten Island, for those not in the know) and might relish the chance to pitch close to home, especially for a team as radically upgraded as the Mets. Diaz, meanwhile, went buckwild (.292/.432/.538 in April) during the early-season absence of Mike Cameron but quickly and harshly fell back to Earth after that scorching April. He finished the season .257/.329/.438 with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 41 runs in 313 PA.

The Mets don’t really have an opening in the rotation unless they were to move someone like Steve Trachsel or Kris Benson.

Marquis and cash? to the Phillies for Jason Michaels: Michaels’ name had been bandied about the Cardinals blogosphere during the winter meetings. He isn’t much of a homer threat, but he does have a pretty good walk rate. Plus, the Phillies’ acquisition of Aaron Rowand left Michaels’ without a starting job. He played all three OF spots in 2005, with the majority of innings coming in CF. One scenario could have Michaels holding down the fort in a corner, then taking over for Edmonds in center after 2007. He beat up lefthanded pitching in 2005 to the tune of a .323 BA and .854 OPS. His righty split was .289/.778, which certainly is acceptable. As a second-year arbitration-eligible player, he could get north of $900K in 2006.

Marquis, meanwhile, might thrive in Philly, given his groundball tendencies. Citizen’s Bank Park needs guys who can keep the ball on the ground. He could slot in after Brett Myers, Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle, and ahead of Gavin Floyd.

Marquis to the Rangers for Kevin Mench: This particular deal also has been talked up as of late in the blogs. Mench doesn’t walk all that much but also doesn’t strike out very much for someone with decent pop. While he knocks around LH pitching (.296, .980!), he’s not as destructive against righties (.255, .743), and his home/away splits favor the Bandbox in Arlington. Mench is still two years away from free agency, but if Austin Kearns (a player similar to Mench per Baseball Reference) could get $900K in 2005, he ought to be able to move into that neighborhood in 2006.

The Rangers are dying for pitching, so they certainly might welcome Marquis’ talent at keeping the ball on the ground.

Fire away with your comments.

Belleville is a beautiful town

In a development that isn’t exactly blowing up the Buzz Meter, the esteemed Joe Ostermeier of the Belleville News-Democrat reports that the Cardinals are closing in on a deal with Belleville native Brian Daubach.

Daubach broke into the majors in 1998 with that stellar Florida Marlins club and enjoyed his best years (1999-2002) with the Boston Red Sox, averaging 21 HR and 74 RBI and about a .266 BA.

Ostermeier speculates that Daubach will play the John Mabry role, the veteran reserve OF with a little left-handed pop off the bench. That makes sense to me, and despite his… well, average average, Daubach’s walk rate has consistently been pretty good.

This projects to be a low-risk signing given that he’s a soon-to-be 36-year-old coming off of three horrid seasons. I can’t imagine him getting any more than the $500K he earned with Boston in 2004. In fact, with those past three seasons I’d rather him get a split deal and an invite to spring training.

Woody, or wouldn’t he?

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com speculates that Kirk “Woody” Rueter could land with the Cardinals, presumably because Rueter was born in Hoyleton, IL, and currently resides in Nashville, along Illinois 127, or as I like to call it, “The Carbondale Expressway.” But I digress.

One question, Ken: Why? Why do the Cards need a 35-year-old slop-tossing lefty? Certainly not to compete for a spot in the rotation, and even more certainly not to compete for a bullpen role.

This is the same guy who’s pitched more than 200 innings only once in his career and who made 18 starts in 2005 before the Giants released him. His career numbers are as follows:

130-92, 1,918 IP, 2092 H, 582 BB, 918 K, 4.27 ERA, 97 ERA+

Forget that gaudy W-L record; his best years were in the late ’90s and early this century (at ages 26-32, AKA his prime) pitching for some good, possibly steroid-fueled Giants teams. His last three seasons were a less than stellar 21-24 combined, with ERAs of 4.53, 4.73 and 5.95. Yikes! And his IP total was across 340 appearances, 336 of which were starts. A little math shows an average of about 5 2/3 innings per start. Only once in his career did he average 6 innings per start, and that was his lone 200 IP season. Give this man the ball every fifth day, and your bullpen will get to work early.

If Rueter would sign, the stars would have to align (or disalign, perhaps) for him to make the club. First, to get a spot in the rotation, Anthony Reyes would have to either get hurt (knock knock) or completely lose function of his body. But common sense dictates that if that happens, then Adam Wainwright would get next crack. Of course, this assumes that 1) Rueter would sign and B) Wainwright/Reyes/Jason Marquis wouldn’t be traded for outfield help. If B happens, then all bets are off, because that hole/holes would ostensibly filled with the patented Dave Duncan Scrap Heaper, of which Rueter certainly qualifies.

To be a candidate for the bullpen, it would take massive failures from Ricardo Rincon, Randy Flores, Tyler Johnson AND Carmen Cali for him to have a shot. If the Cards were to go into the season with Rueter on the roster, they’d be in a world of pain. Nothing personal against the man; I’m sure he’s good people. But, come on.

Ken, you do great work, but this rumor makes no sense. It’s just pure geographical speculation on your part.

Sippin’ on a cup of O-Dawg?

In a previous post, I championed the cause that is Hector Luna to fill the hole the Cardinals have at second base. Another name bandied about the blogosphere for 2B as of late has been that of the O-Dawg, Orlando Hudson of the Toronto Blue Jays. Let’s have a look, shall we?

Hudson has spent his entire career with the Blue Jays organization, getting his first taste of the bigs in 2002 and up for good by 2003. His career line of .270/.328/.418 is right there for a second baseman, but nothing overly special. It’s his glove, though, that makes me take notice. He won his first Gold Glove in 2005, turning in a season of .991 FP (.983 lgFP) on only six errors in 698 chances and 5.83 RF9 (4.96 lgRF9). For his career, those numbers are .986 (.982) and 5.78 (4.94). Certainly, the term “freaky with the leather” applies here.

Let’s take a look at O-Dawg’s numbers against once and future Cardinals 2B:

Hitting, 2005

Grudzielanek .294/.334/.407, 30 2B, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 8 SB, 563 PA
Hudson .271/.315/.412, 25 2B, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 7 SB, 501 PA
Miles .281/.306/.355, 12 2B, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 4 SB, 347 PA
Luna .285/.344/.409, 10 2B, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 10 SB, 153 PA

Granted, to do this we are traveling murky statistical waters, but if you extrapolate Luna’s 2005 to 501 PA (the same number as Hudson), you get this line: .285/.344/.409, 32 2B, 3 HR, 59 RBI, 32 SB. Yes, it is a ridiculously small data sample, but those 32 steals make my eyes bug out. Secondary numbers bear out as such:

Grudzielanek, 92 OPS+, 4.78 RC/27 (using the Baseball Reference formula)
Hudson, 91, 4.58
Miles, 65, 3.64
Luna, 96, 4.54

Compared to hitting, fielding is less able to readily lend itself to objective quantification. While fielding percentage has its uses, I am a fan of range factor, especially range factor per nine innings (RF9).

Fielding, 2005

Grudzielanek .990 FP (.981 lgFP), 5.34 RF9 (4.98 lgRF9)
Hudson .991 (.983), 5.83 (4.96)
Miles .984 (.981), 5.40 (4.98)
Luna .979 (.981) 5.85 (4.98)

As mentioned above, Hudson’s glove was Au-tomatic (see your chemistry teacher for the reference) in 2005. Eyechart helped turn an astounding 107 double plays and made just one more error than the O-Dawg, but the discrepancy in range factor is telling. Speaking of range factor, take a look at Luna’s (albeit in limited time at 2B). Sure, his fielding percentage leaves much to be desired, but the kid is only 24 and St. Louis has a pretty good infield coach in Jose Oquendo. If he’s coachable and willing to work, Luna eventually could be Hudson’s peer at the keystone.

And finally, no discussion or comparison of players in the modern era could be complete without a look at their salaries. Seemingly every baseball decision is made with the eye on the bottom line.

Salaries, 2005/2006

Grudzielanek 1 year, $1 million/likely 2 years, $6M
Hudson 1 year, $365K/arbitration eligible; 1 year, $500K-$600K+?
Miles 1 year, $326K/1 year, ~$350K
Luna 1 year, $320K/1 year, ~$350K

Much has been made of the Cardinals not going harder after Mark Grudzielanek. If he would have taken a modest bump to stay in St. Louis, I would have been OK with that. That’s not what happened, though; good luck in Kansas City, Mark. Really. When you compare him against the other guys here, Aaron Miles simply does not stack up. It seems he was brought to St. Louis as AAA roster fodder and 25-man insurance. The O-Dawg is starting to hit his prime and would still be relatively cheap in terms of payroll, but at what cost in terms of prospects to trade for him?

I still think Hector Luna is the answer at 2B. He’s young, he’s cheap, he’s showed potential AND he’s already here.

How weird is this?

MattyMo: Good night, and good luck.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Saturday night that Matt Morris has decided to cut ties with the Cardinals. When asked if he’d decided which offer to take, he said, “Not the Cardinals. I eliminated them today.”

As my sister would say, “Well, alrighty then.”

I’m kind of bittersweet about it, because on one hand, there’s young Anthony Reyes coming up to the city from the farm to fill the hole in the rotation. But on the other, MattyMo has given his all for the Cardinals, something that fans should appreciate and something he should be proud of.

For the record, MattyMo’s career numbers in St. Louis: 101-62, 986 K in 1377.3 IP, a career ERA of 3.61 and a career ERA+ of 116. And who can forget his incredible 2001 campaign: 22-9, 3.16. 185 K against 54 BB for a K/BB ratio of 3.42. Sure, he seemed to slow down the past few years, especially the disastrous 2003 and 2004 seasons. But for my money, the current-era Cards haven’t had a more mentally tough big-game pitcher than MattyMo. One such start that readily comes to mind was game 4 of that epic five-game series in Chicago in September 2003: MattyMo vs. that jerk of a bully Kerry Wood. Both pitchers were throwing BBs, and in Wood’s case, at Morris’ head as well. But Morris was just a little bit better. That was the only game the Cardinals won that series, and as such kind of sucked the hope out of the team.

Don’t forget Game 1 of the 2002 NLCS. Yeah, he was a little geeked up that game and allowed a few hits, most notably that home run to Kenny “One Flap Down” Lofton. But Morris wasn’t about to take any nonsense from the likes of Lofton, and the next time The Latest Incarnation of Jeffrey Leonard came up, MattyMo put the first pitch under Lofton’s chin. How ya like me now, punk? the pitch seemed to say. I became a dead-red MattyMo supporter after that.

Anyway, enough of the emotional reminiscing. After no overtures were made early in the offseason about an extension, I’m sure MattyMo had to see the writing on the wall. That writing became practically set in stone after Jocketty’s somewhat dogged but ultimately futile pursuit of A.J. Burnett. Besides, how do you think he would have reacted after getting an offer of three years and about $6.5M per? They offered Burnett, a career 49-50 pitcher, four years and $10M per, for the love of Pete!

The above article says the Giants are the clear front-runner for Morris’ services now. If he goes to San Francisco, he’d join other former Cardinals Mike Matheny, Steve Kline and Springfield’s own Jeff Fassero. One would have to think Morris would be interested in teaming up with Matheny again; he enjoyed his best seasons dealing to the former Cardinals backstop. I have read that the Giants have offered Morris two deals: two years and $18M or three years and $25M. Other teams rumored to be interested are the Mariners and the Rangers.

I find it interesting that neither New York team seems to be, well… interested. He’s from Middletown and probably wouldn’t mind pitching for a “hometown” team. He probably also wouldn’t mind the extra cheddar he’d make the way the Mets are handing out the contracts.

Hard cap, schmard schmap

According to numerous published reports, the skinflinted Cardinals ownership group, which is awash in cash that apparently is burning to heat their mansions this winter, has mandated a “hard cap” on the second base position of one year and $2 million. The recent acquisition of Aaron Miles is not the answer. Fortunately, I have the solution, and he’ll come cheaper than $2 million.

Hector Luna.

Hear me out. The Cardinals thought enough of him in 2004 to leave him on the 25-man roster after plucking him out of the Cleveland organization in the 2003 Rule 5 draft. He played reasonably well that season, as well as you could expect a 22-year-old who had never been above Double-A. His basic batting line was .249/.304/.364.

In 2005, he broke spring training in Memphis and had a less-than-stellar start: .224/.294/.332 in 57 games. Nonetheless, he later was promoted to the big club; I’m guessing to fill a bench slot after the Scott Rolen Fiasco. He responded to the challenge thusly: In 137 AB, he compiled .285/.344/.409, with 10 doubles, 26 runs, 18 RBI and 10 steals. Yes, that is a relatively small data sample, but still. Take those numbers across 500 AB and you get this: 36 doubles, 95 runs, 66 RBI and 36 steals. HEL-lo! And his career minor league numbers give his 2005 stint in St. Louis at least a little credence: .263/.334/.351. Not outstanding, but the man will be only 24 during the 2006 season. There’s no reason to think he couldn’t improve.

Take a look at his fielding stats at 2B only and you’ll see that the Cards could do worse than to have Luna at the keystone: In 2004 his RF9 (range factor per 9 innings) was 5.61. The league’s RF9 was 4.45. In 2005 those numbers were 5.85 and 4.98. That small data sample shows he could be an above-average defender at second.

All this could be ours for the low, low price of about $350K. He’s still a year away from arbitration, so he could be renewed for a modest raise over the $320K he made in 2005. My admittedly mediocre math skills show a savings of about $1.65M against that ridiculous “hard cap” that ownership has imposed. To paraphrase Bob Watson from “Bad News Bears in Breaking Training”:

Let him play! Let him play! Let him play! Etc.