The Mark Mulder Situation

The Associated Press is reporting that Mark Mulder will undergo arthroscopic surgery next week to repair the rotator cuff in his shoulder.

Ignoring the fact that this announcement contradicts what both Mulder and management have said in the past, should the Cardinals bring him back after his surgery?

Assuming he’d be able to pitch in 2007, I don’t think a heavily incentive-laden one-year deal, a la Matt Morris, is out of the question.

Something along the lines of:

• $1 million base
• $1 million bonus for reaching 30 starts

Then once he hits the 30 starts threshold, the ERA incentives kick in:

• $1M for each .25 run below 4.00
• $2M for each .25 run below 3.00

His salaries under various scenarios:

1. 30+ starts, 3.85 ERA: $2M
2. 30+ starts, 3.67 ERA: $3M
3. 30+ starts, 3.40 ERA: $4M
4. 30+ starts, 3.12 ERA: $5M
5. 30+ starts, 2.85 ERA: $6M
6. 30+ starts, 2.67 ERA: $8M
7. 30+ starts, 2.40 ERA: $10M

I have no idea if incentivizing ERA even is legal under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, but I would think that each scenario would represent a good chunk of change for one man while also providing value for the team. Who wouldn’t pay $5M for scenario 4? It may seem low at first, but it serves as a way to equalize value when you factor in his salary from his atrocious 2006. And there’s not a GM alive who wouldn’t shell out $10M to get a sub-2.50 ERA from a starter.

It could very well turn out that I’m hitting the glass pipe with regards to this potential contract, but it came to me while I was riding my bike the other day, so I may have just been high off the endorphins.