Rearranging the deck chairs

By now, you’ve heard that the Cardinals have made a cannonball-like splash into the trading pool, acquiring Indians 2B Ronnie Belliard for our own Hector Luna.

This trade comes as a mild surprise, because silly me, I thought that our imploding rotation and the lack of a dependable bullpen lefty were the real issues confronting this ballclub.

The early company line has been nothing short of disingenuous:

“There isn’t anybody who’s had more confidence in him than our staff. We’ve given him playing time.”

That’s a big, steaming pile of horse crap. It was clear from Opening Day that Aaron Miles was Tony La Russa’s preference at second base. According to the Worldwide Leader’s fielding splits, Miles this season has started 67 games and played 611 innings at second base, while Luna was given 35 starts (299 innings) at the keystone. But what about Luna’s vaunted versatility? He’s totaled 20 starts (and 208 innings) at four other positions this season. My piss-poor math skills figure that Miles has had about 17 percent more total playing time than Luna. When you just look at second base, that figure jumps to about 50 percent in favor of Miles.

Tony, if you and your staff had so much confidence in Luna, why did you continue to give the majority of starts at second to Miles when Luna has proved to be the superior offensive player. Granted, he’s not the second coming of Ryne Sandberg, but Luna this season has hit .291/.355/.417, while Miles is at .262/.330/.341.

Meanwhile, what of Belliard? If you believe Tony La Russa, then he’s the final piece of the puzzle, the true keystone, if you will (but only if you will):

“Sometimes you have to seize the moment. This is our chance to win.”

If you say so, Tony. But I’m going to hold you to that. You’re on record saying Belliard is the player to get us over the hump and into the World Series. So what can we expect out of our newest Cardinal? Well, this season, Belliard’s been raking to the tune of .289/.335/.419.

Um, OK. Again, my math skills are not so hot, but those figures appear to be about a half-step down from what Luna has done this season. Defensively, Luna has gotten some criticism for his play in the field, but Viva El Birdos finds that Belliard is no great shakes either.

So how does this represent “our chance to win” exactly? From what I see, we traded Hector Luna for Hector Luna, albeit one that comes with that all-important “veterans pedigree” attached.

Which brings me back to my first point: Hector Luna was never given a real shot at the full-time 2B gig. Why? Because the coaching staff all along preferred Miles, the older, more experienced yet less talented player. And that’s not just some crackpot conspiracy theory. Consider how many starts were given to the likes of Miles, So Taguchi and Sidney Ponson while younger, more talented options continued to languish on the bench and in Memphis.

But now that the Miles-as-starter experiment has proved faulty, TLR and co. need an upgrade, but have decided Luna is not that upgrade. But why? If a 26-year-old Luna is roughly analogous to a 31-year-old Belliard, is it not conceivable that Luna might one day be better than Belliard?

And what of the all-important financial aspect? Belliard is making $4 million (though the Cardinals are on the hook only for the pro-rated portion of that) and will be a free agent at the end of the season, while Luna is pulling about $340K and won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2007 (thank you, Cot’s Baseball Contracts).

Nothing about this trade makes any sense. It’s just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Luna out, Belliard in

Per the excellent and indefatigable Matthew Leach, the Cardinals are trading Hector Luna to the Indians for Ronnie Belliard.

Makes little sense to me; they basically are the same player, except I believe that Luna is younger. Whatever.

I feel an irrational rant coming on…

On the Lidge

Wednesday’s game ended up as a mark in the wrong column, but it was a treat to watch. Certainly, our crimson-clad superheroes played a hard nine. Some things I think:

Jason Marquis: I either called this one, or I jinxed him. I left a comment on VEB’s Game 28 thread about 10 minutes before first pitch:

“… pitching against your team’s actual rival, who is sending out the guy who ended our season last year, would tend to get a guy geeked up. And a geeked-up Jason Marquis tends to overthrow, which is bad news for a sinkerballer.”

Sho ’nuff, Marquis came out locked and loaded with both barrels blazing… and

Huzzahs for Hector

Hector Luna got his fourth start Monday and produced his third multi-hit game of the young season, this time going 2-for-4. He also had a nice play in the field (tho the runner might have beaten the throw) and stole third base by a mile.

A few posters on VEB’s Game 13 thread had their heads turned by Luna’s play Monday:

• Effin Fisk: “Nice arm, Hector.”
• Erik: “He can hit, field, throw and run.”
• My bad self: “Why isn’t he our starting 2B again?”
• Valatan: “Me thinks Miles gets sent down for Spivey … and Luna gets the starting job.”

Matty Fred also notes that Baseball Prospectus predicts a 35% breakout rate for Luna. I have no idea what that means, but I think it’s supposed to be pretty good.

I know he’s had all of 16 at-bats this season, but he seems to be making the most of the morsels of playing time he’s being given. And with lefty Oliver Perez scheduled to start Tuesday, it’s fairly certain that Luna will get another start.

Longtime readers (those, of course, being my dad and brother) know that I’ve been on the Luna bandwagon since December. The team thinks enough of his potential that they’ve let him hang around the big kids since he was Rule Fived back in 2003. However, he can be frustratingly inconsistent, but then so can his playing time.

I really think that he can make some of that special TLR “damage” if he’s just allowed to grow into an everyday role. I know it’s hard to make that sacrifice on a playoff-caliber team, but given the lack of other options, the future might as well be now for Luna. One of the other options, Junior Spivey, likely is due for a callup before too long. I can’t help but think that Luna has 2002 vintage Spivey potential (maybe with less power but more speed) in a body that’s five years younger.

Let’s change the subject

Jiminy crap… I have about had it with this bullcrap weather. Before last month, Springfield had gone nearly 50 years without having a tornado hit. Now we’ve had three in the past three weeks. Funk dat.

So… how ’bout that local sports team? It appears that The Junior Spivey Experiment is over. STLtoday’s headline says it all: Spivey is out, Luna is in.

According to Derrick Goold, Spivey’s shoulder is giving him trouble (get in line, dude), but not so much trouble that he would go on the disabled list. So that leaves the braintrust with a move to make. There is one open spot on the 25-man roster, so another one will have to be made to accomodate Josh Hancock and Scott “It’s Nothing Like That” Spezio. Goold suggests that the team likely will DFA Spivey and hope he accepts a bus ticket to Memphis. The other option is outright release.

I can’t say I disagree with either of those. On one hand, perhaps Triple-A will be all that’s needed for Junior to Get His Groove Back. On the other, I’ve long advocated using Hector Luna at the keystone. If Spivey is released, you’d think some team would pick him up, potentially saving the Cardinals about $900K or so-ish.

So who knows. My brain hurts from all this storm nonsense. A baseball post served as a welcome and needed respite. The grind is not over, however.

But spring training is. Game on.

Hard cap, schmard schmap

According to numerous published reports, the skinflinted Cardinals ownership group, which is awash in cash that apparently is burning to heat their mansions this winter, has mandated a “hard cap” on the second base position of one year and $2 million. The recent acquisition of Aaron Miles is not the answer. Fortunately, I have the solution, and he’ll come cheaper than $2 million.

Hector Luna.

Hear me out. The Cardinals thought enough of him in 2004 to leave him on the 25-man roster after plucking him out of the Cleveland organization in the 2003 Rule 5 draft. He played reasonably well that season, as well as you could expect a 22-year-old who had never been above Double-A. His basic batting line was .249/.304/.364.

In 2005, he broke spring training in Memphis and had a less-than-stellar start: .224/.294/.332 in 57 games. Nonetheless, he later was promoted to the big club; I’m guessing to fill a bench slot after the Scott Rolen Fiasco. He responded to the challenge thusly: In 137 AB, he compiled .285/.344/.409, with 10 doubles, 26 runs, 18 RBI and 10 steals. Yes, that is a relatively small data sample, but still. Take those numbers across 500 AB and you get this: 36 doubles, 95 runs, 66 RBI and 36 steals. HEL-lo! And his career minor league numbers give his 2005 stint in St. Louis at least a little credence: .263/.334/.351. Not outstanding, but the man will be only 24 during the 2006 season. There’s no reason to think he couldn’t improve.

Take a look at his fielding stats at 2B only and you’ll see that the Cards could do worse than to have Luna at the keystone: In 2004 his RF9 (range factor per 9 innings) was 5.61. The league’s RF9 was 4.45. In 2005 those numbers were 5.85 and 4.98. That small data sample shows he could be an above-average defender at second.

All this could be ours for the low, low price of about $350K. He’s still a year away from arbitration, so he could be renewed for a modest raise over the $320K he made in 2005. My admittedly mediocre math skills show a savings of about $1.65M against that ridiculous “hard cap” that ownership has imposed. To paraphrase Bob Watson from “Bad News Bears in Breaking Training”:

Let him play! Let him play! Let him play! Etc.