Woody, or wouldn’t he?

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com speculates that Kirk “Woody” Rueter could land with the Cardinals, presumably because Rueter was born in Hoyleton, IL, and currently resides in Nashville, along Illinois 127, or as I like to call it, “The Carbondale Expressway.” But I digress.

One question, Ken: Why? Why do the Cards need a 35-year-old slop-tossing lefty? Certainly not to compete for a spot in the rotation, and even more certainly not to compete for a bullpen role.

This is the same guy who’s pitched more than 200 innings only once in his career and who made 18 starts in 2005 before the Giants released him. His career numbers are as follows:

130-92, 1,918 IP, 2092 H, 582 BB, 918 K, 4.27 ERA, 97 ERA+

Forget that gaudy W-L record; his best years were in the late ’90s and early this century (at ages 26-32, AKA his prime) pitching for some good, possibly steroid-fueled Giants teams. His last three seasons were a less than stellar 21-24 combined, with ERAs of 4.53, 4.73 and 5.95. Yikes! And his IP total was across 340 appearances, 336 of which were starts. A little math shows an average of about 5 2/3 innings per start. Only once in his career did he average 6 innings per start, and that was his lone 200 IP season. Give this man the ball every fifth day, and your bullpen will get to work early.

If Rueter would sign, the stars would have to align (or disalign, perhaps) for him to make the club. First, to get a spot in the rotation, Anthony Reyes would have to either get hurt (knock knock) or completely lose function of his body. But common sense dictates that if that happens, then Adam Wainwright would get next crack. Of course, this assumes that 1) Rueter would sign and B) Wainwright/Reyes/Jason Marquis wouldn’t be traded for outfield help. If B happens, then all bets are off, because that hole/holes would ostensibly filled with the patented Dave Duncan Scrap Heaper, of which Rueter certainly qualifies.

To be a candidate for the bullpen, it would take massive failures from Ricardo Rincon, Randy Flores, Tyler Johnson AND Carmen Cali for him to have a shot. If the Cards were to go into the season with Rueter on the roster, they’d be in a world of pain. Nothing personal against the man; I’m sure he’s good people. But, come on.

Ken, you do great work, but this rumor makes no sense. It’s just pure geographical speculation on your part.

Sippin’ on a cup of O-Dawg?

In a previous post, I championed the cause that is Hector Luna to fill the hole the Cardinals have at second base. Another name bandied about the blogosphere for 2B as of late has been that of the O-Dawg, Orlando Hudson of the Toronto Blue Jays. Let’s have a look, shall we?

Hudson has spent his entire career with the Blue Jays organization, getting his first taste of the bigs in 2002 and up for good by 2003. His career line of .270/.328/.418 is right there for a second baseman, but nothing overly special. It’s his glove, though, that makes me take notice. He won his first Gold Glove in 2005, turning in a season of .991 FP (.983 lgFP) on only six errors in 698 chances and 5.83 RF9 (4.96 lgRF9). For his career, those numbers are .986 (.982) and 5.78 (4.94). Certainly, the term “freaky with the leather” applies here.

Let’s take a look at O-Dawg’s numbers against once and future Cardinals 2B:

Hitting, 2005

Grudzielanek .294/.334/.407, 30 2B, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 8 SB, 563 PA
Hudson .271/.315/.412, 25 2B, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 7 SB, 501 PA
Miles .281/.306/.355, 12 2B, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 4 SB, 347 PA
Luna .285/.344/.409, 10 2B, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 10 SB, 153 PA

Granted, to do this we are traveling murky statistical waters, but if you extrapolate Luna’s 2005 to 501 PA (the same number as Hudson), you get this line: .285/.344/.409, 32 2B, 3 HR, 59 RBI, 32 SB. Yes, it is a ridiculously small data sample, but those 32 steals make my eyes bug out. Secondary numbers bear out as such:

Grudzielanek, 92 OPS+, 4.78 RC/27 (using the Baseball Reference formula)
Hudson, 91, 4.58
Miles, 65, 3.64
Luna, 96, 4.54

Compared to hitting, fielding is less able to readily lend itself to objective quantification. While fielding percentage has its uses, I am a fan of range factor, especially range factor per nine innings (RF9).

Fielding, 2005

Grudzielanek .990 FP (.981 lgFP), 5.34 RF9 (4.98 lgRF9)
Hudson .991 (.983), 5.83 (4.96)
Miles .984 (.981), 5.40 (4.98)
Luna .979 (.981) 5.85 (4.98)

As mentioned above, Hudson’s glove was Au-tomatic (see your chemistry teacher for the reference) in 2005. Eyechart helped turn an astounding 107 double plays and made just one more error than the O-Dawg, but the discrepancy in range factor is telling. Speaking of range factor, take a look at Luna’s (albeit in limited time at 2B). Sure, his fielding percentage leaves much to be desired, but the kid is only 24 and St. Louis has a pretty good infield coach in Jose Oquendo. If he’s coachable and willing to work, Luna eventually could be Hudson’s peer at the keystone.

And finally, no discussion or comparison of players in the modern era could be complete without a look at their salaries. Seemingly every baseball decision is made with the eye on the bottom line.

Salaries, 2005/2006

Grudzielanek 1 year, $1 million/likely 2 years, $6M
Hudson 1 year, $365K/arbitration eligible; 1 year, $500K-$600K+?
Miles 1 year, $326K/1 year, ~$350K
Luna 1 year, $320K/1 year, ~$350K

Much has been made of the Cardinals not going harder after Mark Grudzielanek. If he would have taken a modest bump to stay in St. Louis, I would have been OK with that. That’s not what happened, though; good luck in Kansas City, Mark. Really. When you compare him against the other guys here, Aaron Miles simply does not stack up. It seems he was brought to St. Louis as AAA roster fodder and 25-man insurance. The O-Dawg is starting to hit his prime and would still be relatively cheap in terms of payroll, but at what cost in terms of prospects to trade for him?

I still think Hector Luna is the answer at 2B. He’s young, he’s cheap, he’s showed potential AND he’s already here.

A few quick hits

Wednesday was by far the busiest day at the winter meetings, with several trades consummated and free agents getting new deals. Because I don’t have much time before bed, I will be brief.

St. Louis trades LHP Ray “Burger” King to Colorado for OF Larry Bigbie and 2B Aaron Miles. This is a decent deal given that the Cards probably were eager to unload the malcontented southpaw. Bigbie will provide a decent lefty outfield platoon option, but Miles probably is Bo Hart 2006. He’d have to have a huge spring to start with the big club. Bigbie is first-time arbitration eligible; I’m guessing that he will sign for about $800K-$900K. Miles is still one season from arbitration eligibility, so if he makes the team he’ll get ~$350K. On the mound, Tyler Johnson can now step into the No. 2 lefty slot behind Randy Flores, and both will earn about $700K combined in 2006. So in getting serviceable outfield help and AAA fodder in Bigbie and Miles, the Cardinals will save at least $500K, likely more. It may not sound like much, but every little bit helps.

Texas trades 2B Alfonso Soriano to Washington for OF Brad Wilkerson, OF Terrmel Sledge and minor-league pitcher Armando Galarraga. Soriano has been the biggest name on the move so far, who woulda thunk that Washington would get involved? Soriano made $7.5M last season and is eligible for free agency after 2006. Given the terrible situation that Washington has to deal with, it certainly is a surprise that they took on Soriano, who will get $10M or more in arbitration. Anyway, sending Wilkerson to Texas was what got me a little ticked. In a previous post, I extolled Wilkerson’s virtues as a potential Cardinal. But certainly the offer of Soriano was superior the one I had proposed. Guess that’s why I’m writing this and not on my Crackberry in Dallas swinging deals. As for Sledge, back in 2003, he drew a two-year ban from international competition for testing positive for steroids. If he thinks he’s making the Rangers in 2006, he’ll be behind at least Wilkerson, David Dellucci, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix. Jason Botts figures to be in the mix as well, and possibly Sarge Jr. too. All I know about Armando Galarraga is that he’s got a great name for a pitcher. ARMando! Get it?

Milwaukee trades 1B Lyle Overbay to Toronto for RHP Dave Bush, outfield prospect Gabe Gross and a player to be
named. OK, J.P Ricciardi, we see you. It seems like this man is doing anything he can to get some attention. He’s certainly been busy spending the piles of strong Canadian dollars the new owners have given him. Anyway, Overbay is a poor man’s Mark Grace: sweet lefty swing with doubles power and can take a walk. Not as handy yet with the glove as Grace was, tho. The next move Ricciardi needs to make is what to do with Shea Hillenbrand and/or Eric Hinske. Hinske is overpaid, IMO, at $4.325M for next season, and he’s due $5.626M (?) in 2007. A little pricey for a career .258/.335/.430 corner infielder. He is less likely to be traded than Hillenbrand, a career .288/.327/.448 corner man who made $3.87M in 2005 and who is eligible for free agency after 2006. Somebody might give him $4.5M to stay out of arbitration. The Overbay deal looks better from the Milwaukee perspective. First base is now freed up for uberprospect Prince Fielder, who had nothing left to prove in the minors, and Dave Bush can slide into rotation in place of Wes Obermueller, who was traded to Atlanta for Dan Kolb. Milwaukee will see a net gain in their payroll with the addition of Kolb, however.

Burnett gets his wings

Righthander A.J. Burnett joined the Blue Jays on Tuesday. That kinda ends the Great Burnett Debate once and for all, huh? The Cardinals apparently wouldn’t guarantee a fifth year, so Toronto’s new-found pile of gold wins out.

Attention now must turn to at least one semi-large bat in the outfield. Jacque Jones is a name I’m reading more often. He’s a good player, but I’d like to see if the team can trade for a big-time power bat. I would love to see Adam Dunn in St. Louis, but he’s probably nearly untouchable. Bobby Abreu is a beast, and Pat Burrell is a fine player to have as well. But Abreu is guaranteed at least $30 million through 2008, and Burrell $36.5 million during the same timeframe. Both have full no-trade clauses.

One guy I alluded to in a previous post is Brad Wilkerson of the Nationals. He’s a poor man’s Brian Giles: walks like crazy and has 30-homer potential. I think he would fit nicely in the 2 hole. His contract situation offers far more flexibility as well, as he still is two years from free agency. He made $3 million in 2005, so I think a one-year deal for $5 million ought to keep him out of arbitration.

The bullpen is a mess as well. Four guys from 2005 figure to be gone or practically gone: The sneaky-good but hard-luck Al Reyes, whose elbow popped on the season’s final day; Cal Eldred, who has retired; Julian Tavarez, who likely will get more elsewhere than what the Cardinals will offer, if they offer at all; and Ray King, no explanation necessary. Relievers as a whole are a transient bunch, so it’s hard to make any kind of judgments as whom to go after. The pen always seems to get put together like the night before spring training.

Lo Duca in Florida? Fuhgeddaboutit!

The New York Daily News reports that the Florida Marlins are at it again, this time sending catcher Paul Lo Duca to the Mets in exchange for minor-league pitcher Gaby Hernandez and the infamous player to be named.

Hernandez was drafted out of high school in the third round of the 2004 draft, and Baseball America ranked him as the Mets’ No. 3 overall prospect in 2005.

Lo Duca, a native Brooklynite, could fit in nicely in the 2 hole for the Mets. Here is one man’s projected Mets’ 2006 lineup:

SS Jose Reyes (by default; Reyes doesn’t take walks, but nobody else seems to fit)
C Paul Lo Duca
CF Carlos Beltran
1B Carlos Delgado
LF Cliff Floyd
3B David Wright
RF Victor Diaz/Xavier Nady
2B Kazuo Matsui

Wow! On paper (or in a blog, actually), that lineup could be one of the best in the National League. If Reyes can learn to take a few more walks, Lo Duca is a great fit in the 2 hole given his talent at situational hitting. Beltran is sure to have a bounce-back season, and we all know what Delgado can do. Cliff Floyd managed to stay healthy for a whole season in 2005, and David Wright is a superstar in waiting. If they can get another decent starter to replace Steve Trachsel, the Mets will be the prohibitive favorites in the East, which is OK, actually, because I was a fan of Willie Randolph’s back in the day. It’ll be nice to see him have some success.

Euphemism of the day

In advance of next week’s winter meetings, the Florida Marlins have traded 2B Luis Castillo to the Minnesota Twins for minor-league pitchers Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler. If you aren’t as big a fan of the Hot Stove League as I am, Castillo joins Carlos Delgado, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota as casualties of the Marlins’ latest fire sale. Oh… excuse me… I mean the “market correction” of their payroll. That is the company line being toed by general manager Larry Beinfest and other Marlins executives as they dismantle their team yet again. You didn’t hear it here first, but once their lease at Dolphins Stadium expires after the 2007 season, say hello to your Portland Spotted Owls. Or your Las Vegas Buffet Chasers. Or your Monterey Culabros de Pantalones. Or whatever. You get the idea. In the words of the inimitable Ken “Hawk” Harrelson: They gone!

Anyway, Bowyer spent most of 2005 in Triple-A, going 4-2 with 23 saves and a 2.73 ERA. He also struck out an eye-popping 96 batters in 74 1/3 innings. In a late-season call up, he got smacked around a bit, giving up 6 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. He did manage to whiff 12 guys and walked only three. At this point, he should be first in line for the Marlins’ closer job in 2006.

As for Tyler, he went 7-8 and 3.95 in Single-A in 2005, with 109 K in 118 1/3 IP as a starter. Those are fine numbers, but if he opens 2006 in Double-A as Sportsline predicts, he might not even sniff the big leagues until sometime in 2007. Of course, this is the Marlins we’re talking about. It is not unheard of for them to promote guys straight outta Compton. I mean, Double-A.

Financially, this saves Florida $5 million in 2006 and puts Minnesota on the hook for Castillo’s $5.75 million option for 2007.

Do the Cardinals need Burnett?

Well, it’s official. After several days of speculation, the St. Louis Cardinals have made an offer to Florida Marlins free-agent pitcher A.J. Burnett, according to the St. Louis Post Dispatch.

On reading that the Cards were interested in Burnett several days ago, my first thought was, “Why?” Starting pitching is not the priority right now, especially starting pitching with a surly attitude. But do a little research and you’ll see he has above average secondary numbers: a career K/9IP ratio of nearly 8 (with that figure hovering in the 8.5 range the past four seasons) and a career BA against of .230. Those figures indicate that his nasty stuff can miss bats. But continue your research and you’ll find his career K/BB ratio is a pedestrian 2. He also averages a shade under 16 pitches per inning for his career, a figure that’s more or less steady throughout his career. That translates to about 96 pitches after only 6 innings, somewhat troubling if you believe in pitch counts. And while he had an impressive 2.42 groundball/flyball ratio in 2005, that was more than one full point above his career average prior to this season (although his GB/FB ratio has been improving over the years). And many of his primary and secondary numbers were at or near career levels in 2005. Nothing motivates a guy like a walk year. And let us not forget that he was “Keyshawned” the final week of 2005 for criticizing his manager for being a big meany poophead, and that he pretty much disappeared in September, going 0-4, 5.93 down the stretch when the Marlins still were in the wild-card hunt

On the other hand, many of his numbers compare equally or favorably to those of other Cardinals starters, especially his K/9IP ratio. So the question is, do the Cardinals need him? Is a backloaded, four-year deal to get a potential 1a going to be more cost-effective than paying Jason Marquis $5M-$6M to be a 5? Sure, Marquis could be used as part of a deal to get a bat, but so could one-time blue-chip prospect Adam Wainwright, who would come much cheaper and therefore might bring more in trade.

So my answer to the above question is: I don’t think so. The Cards have more need for bats in both corner outfield spots, as well as a second baseman and insurance for the inevitable Scott Rolen injury. Perhaps a Wainwright/John Gall centerpiece for the likes of a Brad Wilkerson, who is a walks (and K) machine and has a 30-homer season under his belt. He’s still two years away from free agency and could probably get $5M in arbitration, about what Marquis might get and certainly less than what Burnett would cost.