Arbitrary moves

(UPDATE 10:49 pm: The broken links are now fixed. I am a dumbass.)

Friday was the deadline for teams to offer their free agents arbitration, and of the several Cardinals eligible, only Jeff Suppan and Mark Mulder had the offer extended.

That Suppan and Mulder were offered arbitration is not surprising, nor that Jeff Weaver wasn’t isn’t either.

Weaver made $8.325M base in 2006 and had he been offered arbitration, he likely would have accepted. He certainly would have been awarded more than his 2006 base. Because both sides have expressed interest in Weaver’s return, an offer not substantially higher than last year’s likely would have negated any goodwill as far as re-signing him goes.

Getting back to Suppan and Mulder, I think that the arbitration offers mean both are as good as gone. Despite his career league-averageness, Suppan’s postseason heroics will mean that someone will throw mad dollars in his direction. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said last week that the Pirates are gunning for Suppan, although the figures quoted there ($8M-$9M) may be on the low side. Other teams with reported interest include the Giants and the Blue Jays.

Suppan’s status as a Type A free agent means that if/when another team signs him, the Cardinals would/will receive the team’s first-round draft pick and and a supplemental pick.

Mulder is receiving attention from all over the league as well: Arizona is totally hot for him, as is Tampa Bay. Other teams rumored to be interested include San Diego and Baltimore.

While Mulder is coming off of surgery and won’t be ready to pitch until later in the season, some team is likely to offer him multiple, guaranteed years to separate themselves from teams offering a one-year, incentived deal, which the Cardinals are likely to do.

Lest you think a multiple-year deal for a pitcher coming off of serious shoulder surgery amounts to lunacy, a somewhat similar deal was struck back in 2003. After he shredded his elbow the previous season, the Yankees gave Jon Lieber two years guaranteed, the first of which was for $300K while he rehabbed his elbow. The second year paid him $2.45M, although the Yankees declined their $8M option for 2005, when he eventually signed with the Phillies.

While Mulder will probably get a similarly structured deal (two years guaranteed, club option for a third) he’ll certainly will get much, much more than Lieber’s $2.75M guarantee. He’s a Type B free agent, meaning the Cardinals would get just the supplemental pick if another team resigns him.

The Mark Mulder Situation

The Associated Press is reporting that Mark Mulder will undergo arthroscopic surgery next week to repair the rotator cuff in his shoulder.

Ignoring the fact that this announcement contradicts what both Mulder and management have said in the past, should the Cardinals bring him back after his surgery?

Assuming he’d be able to pitch in 2007, I don’t think a heavily incentive-laden one-year deal, a la Matt Morris, is out of the question.

Something along the lines of:

• $1 million base
• $1 million bonus for reaching 30 starts

Then once he hits the 30 starts threshold, the ERA incentives kick in:

• $1M for each .25 run below 4.00
• $2M for each .25 run below 3.00

His salaries under various scenarios:

1. 30+ starts, 3.85 ERA: $2M
2. 30+ starts, 3.67 ERA: $3M
3. 30+ starts, 3.40 ERA: $4M
4. 30+ starts, 3.12 ERA: $5M
5. 30+ starts, 2.85 ERA: $6M
6. 30+ starts, 2.67 ERA: $8M
7. 30+ starts, 2.40 ERA: $10M

I have no idea if incentivizing ERA even is legal under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, but I would think that each scenario would represent a good chunk of change for one man while also providing value for the team. Who wouldn’t pay $5M for scenario 4? It may seem low at first, but it serves as a way to equalize value when you factor in his salary from his atrocious 2006. And there’s not a GM alive who wouldn’t shell out $10M to get a sub-2.50 ERA from a starter.

It could very well turn out that I’m hitting the glass pipe with regards to this potential contract, but it came to me while I was riding my bike the other day, so I may have just been high off the endorphins.

When’s Mulder back?

Wait. Did I just actually pine for the return of Mark Mulder in the post title? Desperation makes a terrible cologne.

Faithful readers of this Web log (“all four of you”) know that earlier this season, I had written off Mulder to be of any use anymore.

Then Jeff Weaver happened.

The latest addition to the Cardinals’ collection of No. 5 starters has been nothing short of horrendous. In four starts, Weaver has put up an 8.68 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, .376 BAA, given up 6 HR, walked 6 and struck out 5 in 18.2 innings. That’s like (Mulder + Marquis) – Carpenter = Weaver.
I’ve seen enough.

So, back to my original question. LBoros postulates an Aug. 16 return for Mulder. Even continuing our current trend, we won’t be that far out, if at all. We just have to hope that Mulder has put his time off to good use and comes back with his head clear and pitches the way he did before the 2004 All-Star break.

And to help faciliate that, I am officially wiping the slate clean with Mulder. You have been given new life at The 26th Man offices. Don’t fritter that goodwill away.

Godspeed, little doodle.

Hey, we won!

Yes, despite falling behind the Brewers by six runs Friday night, the Cardinals scored a whopping 10 runs on a 12-hit attack, hopefully further cementing the idea that it really is O.K. for guys other than Albert Pujols to pace the offense.But really, the offense didn’t get going until Tony La Russa pinch-hit for Mark Mulder. It’s like they thought, “Finally, Spooky McSucksalot is done! Let’s get to work getting out of the hole he dug for us.”

And what a hole it was. Mulder, who seems to have assumed first chair in the Jason Marquis Memorial Cardinals Bloggers Whipping Boy Orchestra, whatevered his way through three uninspiring innings, giving up six runs on five hits while walking three. He gave up a first-inning home run to Carlos Lee, which makes 14 in 13 starts across 81.1 IP. If he makes 31 starts (his average the past five seasons), his current pace will give him about 33 HR allowed.

Fans who haven’t yet repressed their memories of Brett F. Tomko and Matt Morris and their whiplash-inducing 2003 and 2004 seasons, respectively, will recall that those cats each gave up 35 dingers. More than Mulder, right? For sure, but Tomko and Morris had HR/9IP rates of 1.55 and 1.56, respectively, while Mulder is sitting on 1.56 himself this season. Yikes.

If all this sounds like I’m picking on him, well… I am. Mulder’s always been on a short leash with me because we seemingly gave up so much to get him. Even my fantasy league’s scoring system likes Dan Haren better.

Well, that sucked v2.0

For the love of Pete.

I turned the game off after Phil Nevin’s home run made it 7-1. I see that we made somewhat of a game out of it late.

For the record, Mark Mulder is officially dead to me. Sorry for stealing that bit from CardNilly, but I’ve had it with “Spooky,” or whatever it is that Paper Boy is calling him. I’ve always had it in for that guy, so those three errors in the fourth inning don’t matter.

And now this:

Albert Pujols strained his right oblique going after a foul ball and likely will go on the disabled list.

“Obviously, we have significant concerns about the severity,” team physician Dr. George Paletta said. “This injury can put you out for weeks.”

*Gulp*

I don’t like the sound of that. This team already was on shaky ground offensively, though not yet to the depth of the Cubs, the last two games notwithstanding. One would have to think a trade is sorely needed at this point. Anthony Reyes, we hardly knew ye.

Wow. The lineup possibilities are endless and intriguing, to say the least. Hey Brian Daubach! Come on down! His walk rate this season with Memphis is a thing of beauty, and hopefully some of the pop he’s shown can translate to the big club. If you get the call, B-Daub, make downstate Illinois proud.

Bewitched, bothered and bewildered

Um … is this happening? Seriously. It’s either Bizarro Jerry or Negative Zone time in St. Louis. It sure feels like a nexus of negativity anyway. Maybe there was something we weren’t allowed to see in all that Cubs pre- and post-game talk in May of “This (insert flubbed cut-off throw / stupid two-outs-in-ninth-inning bunt / bad matchup / Michael Barrett backalley bare-knuckle brawl here) is what happens when things aren’t going your way” on the radio. Clearly, everyone, from “Jughead” Marshall on down to G-Unit (Dusty’s nickname for him on the radio today, not mine), was holding voodoo dolls of Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jason Isringhausen and Mark Mulder and jabbing pins in them faster than that weird prince dude did to poor Indy.

Cover your heart, indeed. And there is no time for love in St. Louis right now, Dr. LaRussa.

Where to begin? Let’s start with Spooky, for whom this is the third straight loss off the mound. The general nervousness in Cardinal Nation over this guy has to be rising again. 16 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings since May 17. My thought is that Jockitchy went a little overboard for this guy when he went after him. In fact, I’m surprised that he didn’t end up with the Cubs, where his suckitude would likely be greater. Seriously, methinks your pitching could be in trouble.

Dr. Jekyll

Looks like we got Good Mulder on Monday.

Marky Mark was his usual Mulderiffic self, coaxing 14 groundball outs against five flyballs while striking out five and allowing only one walk in eight-plus innings and 97 pitches (my goodness, what a horrible sentence). The Funky Bunch turned three double plays behind him, and Mulder got burned on only one mistake.

That’s the kind of baseball I like seeing; quick, efficient groundouts with a few rally-stifling double-play balls sprinkled to and fro. It may not make for compelling television, but this is America, and groundball outs are more democratic.

He even went all Skip Schumacher on us and took Jose Capellan (like our boy Adam Wainwright, a discarded Braves prospect) deep for his first career dinger.

This was a superlative Mulder effort, one we should appreciate and treasure. Not just because it was Opening Day, but because he actually seemed to be paying attention and interested in the outcome of the game. Part of my irrational bias against Mulder is that at times he acts like (or I perceive that) a pitching mound is the last place on Earth he wants to be.

He strings together a few more outings like Monday’s, and I might just take back what I said about him. Congratulations, Mark… a 26-gun salute in your general direction.

The truth is out there

Mark Mulder has been the subject of much keystroking in the Cardinals blogosphere this winter. He rules. He sucks. Good trade. Bad trade. Extend him. Trade him. Let him go. Lather, rinse, repeat.

RumorMonger at MLB Trade Rumors, taking a cue from the Joe Strauss article at the Post-Dispatch, looks at Mulder’s impending free agency after this season.

Baseball-Ref’s list of Mulder comparables through age 27 includes Andy Pettite, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina and Barry Zito. All gentleman and scholars, as well as great pitchers. But RM, doing the sabermetric thing, calls Mulder “a decent five-win pitcher, akin to the current version of Brad Radke.”

I have virtually no knowledge of anything sabermetric, but I do know that nobody in their right mind would pay Burnett money (which Strauss said Mulder would be seeking) for the likes of Brad Radke, as wonderful a human being as he may be.

RM goes on to make a sabermetric argument, which, of course, I don’t understand, against such a megabucks deal for Mulder, going so far as to call a deal like that an “egregious (example) of a free agent mistake.”

There is sort of a way around paying top dollar for free agent pitching. It’s called “Grow Your Own.” Dan Haren, I’m looking in your direction.

After the bitter sting of the 2004 World Series wore off, I looked forward to seeing Haren join the rotation full time, not only as a certified talent but also as a balance to the payroll. But he gets traded for a guy (with a fancy pedigree, for sure) who makes $6 million-plus more. This from a team that represents the pinnacle of upper-middle-class restraint? Was a moderately expensive groundballer who racked up a bunch of wins on good teams thought to be the difference maker? I didn’t understand the trade then, and I still don’t today.

I’m sure the Haren/Mulder comparo has been done to death already, so I won’t rehash it. Point is, the Cardinals had a young (read: CHEAP), major-league ready starter with tons of upside and traded him. And now the owners are crying … well, they’re not crying poverty, but the talk of positional “salary caps” and all that nonsense just rings a little hollow.

If it’s Burnett money he wants, then Mulder can go to Toronto to get it. Let’s take whatever we were going to spend on Mulder long term and give some of it to Jeff Suppan. He certainly deserves to be paid more than what he’s getting, but I honestly don’t think he’d ask for a huge bump. You could then finally give Adam Wainwright a starting job and then fill the No. 5 hole with the Cheapie Veteran du Jour®.