Phun with trade rumors

**UPDATE 3:55 pm: Never mind. The Cardinals cut Rincon on Friday. Two years, $2.9 million, 3.1 innings, 10.80 ERA. That was money well spent.**

The last few days of spring training often move the slowest, as Opening Day is so tantalizingly close yet so agonizingly far away.

So the obsessive Internet nerds while away their anxieties by inventing trade scenarios. I ran across an interesting one at The Phanatic Magazine:

A source told The Phanatic Magazine Thursday that talk around the league has the Phillies entered into discussions with the St. Louis Cardinals about the possibility of a Chris Coste-Ricardo Rincon swap.

Sure, Ricardo Rincon is a likely trade candidate, but for Chris Coste? You might remember him as a feel-good story from last year: After 11 seasons in the Northern League and various affiliated minor-league locales, Coste finally made the majors is 2006, hitting .328/.376/.505 in 98 games.

Great. But he’s a catcher. The Cardinals are set at the major-league level and have options in Eli Marrero and Michel Hernandez should anything happen to Yadier Molina and Gary Bennett.

Coste just doesn’t make sense for the Cardinals as a trade target. But one of his Phillies teammates might.

The Cardinals, as you’ve read, are thin in the outfield ranks, especially after having banished John Rodriguez to the Memphis bench. And the Phillies are thin in the bullpen, as The Phanatic mentioned.

So it makes better sense to me to send Rincon, Rodriguez and cash to the Phillies for Jayson Werth and and a low-level relief prospect. Here’s why:

• Rincon would slide into the Phillies bullpen at least as their top lefty, and possibly into setup role.
• Rodriguez could replace Werth as the Phillies’ fourth outfielder.
• With Juan Encarnacion out and Jim Edmonds recuperating, Werth can fill in anywhere in the outfield and also knows how to use his glove.
• Best of all, acquiring Werth would obviate the need for Preston Wilson and/or So Taguchi.

I’ve been on the Werth bandwagon for some time now. He does have some injury concerns, but he’s finally healthy after two troubling seasons and is swinging the bat fairly well this spring.

Logjammin’

With the national media seemingly focused on the Cardinals’ rotation, I find the outfield situation much more vexing.

Even when at full health, the starting troika has its flaws. But with one, and possibly two, starters slated to open the season on the disabled list, a spot or two could open up for the multitude of fourth/fifth outfielders still in camp.

Juan Encarnacion is a near-lock to kick off 2007 on the D.L., a distinction that Jim Edmonds was supposed to share. But Edmonds got three innings Sunday in his first Grapefruit League action and played Monday and Tuesday as well. Even if he’s not swinging the bat well, he can contribute by taking his walks and playing his usual nifty defense.

So let’s just assume that just one free spot will open. And in Encarnacion’s absence, Scott Spiezio will get the bulk of the time in right field, which means after Aaron Miles and Gary Bennett, there will be three bench spots left. Here’s who should get in:

• John Rodriguez. J-Rod apparently has taken up residence in the John Gall Memorial Tony La Russa Doghouse. Sure, Rodriguez hasn’t gotten a hit since St. Patrick’s Day, but that’s also the last time he got more than two plate appearances in a game. Maybe his power surge in 2005 was a fluke, but he has shown an ability to get on base, a quality that doesn’t exist in this lineup beyond the No. 5 hole.
• Skip “Jared” Schumaker. The Skipster is slugging .568 so far this spring, but the bulk of that is from his two-homer game March 7. His defense is what is going to book his trip to St. Louis. Think of him as So Taguchi, only a decade younger and not Japanese.
• So Taguchi. Yes, carrying Schumaker and SoTags is an exercise in redundancy. But Preston Wilson has been terrible this spring, and you know TLR couldn’t start the season without his beloved Taguchi. P-Dub, thanks for your help last season. Now pack up your trash and get out.

So who gets whacked once Encarnacion comes back? Logic dictates that it would be Taguchi, but his is a charmed existence under La Russa. The smart money is on Rodriguez, unfortunately. Even more unfortunately, there’s no room in the Memphis outfield, either. He can be a useful part-time contributor at the major-league level. If he can’t do it in St. Louis, make a deal with a team who can make room for him.

Kip on keeping on

(Julie Jacobson/The Associated Press)

Kip Wells has further cemented his status as the 2007 Dave Duncan Pound Puppy after going five innings Saturday against the Washington Nationals, allowing two runs and striking out six.

In 17 spring innings, he’s fashioned a 1.06 ERA while striking out 15 and has yet to allow a home run. If he keeps this up, he’ll provide a reasonable facsimile of a No. 4 pitcher out of the No. 2 hole spot in the rotation.

My biggest concern with him is his uniform number. I just hope it’s not jinxed; the last two guys to wear No. 21 were chased out of town by angry, pitchfork-wielding mobs.

Cardinals officials imPerezed by reliever

After being drafted in the first supplemental round last June, Chris Perez more or less dominated Midwest League hitters in 25 appearances.

And according to Kary Booher of the Springfield (Mo.) News-Leader, Perez this spring has picked up where he left off:

Initially and conservatively penciled in to close for High-A Palm Beach this season, Perez is blowtorching his way through spring training at such a dizzying pace, St. Louis’ minor league personnel are beginning to question whether the original plan ought to be scrapped.

Now it appears he could break camp as the anchor of the Springfield Cardinals bullpen…

Taking a page out of Erik’s book, Perez’s cheese sits in the low to mid-90s, while his slider, rated by Baseball America as the organization’s best, is death to right-handers. Portsiders, though, were less impressed by it, as evidenced by Perez’s generous walk rate to lefties.

If he does start the season in Double-A and can figure out a way to solve lefties, we could see Perez enjoying a delicious cup of fair-trade coffee with the big club in September. He then could be setting up for Jason Isringhausen in 2008, unless the club declines Izzy’s $8 million option…

While I do find it implausible that the club would give Perez the keys to the ninth inning in 2008 (that’ll happen in 2009), it does highlight what I think is a better, cheaper way to construct a bullpen.

Instead of paying retail for an “established closer,” it would be much more cost-effective to grow your own power arms to put in that role. Take Isringhausen’s contracts, for example. His first, signed in 2002 was for four years at an average yearly value of $6.75M. The extension he signed before 2005 to replace the final two years of the first deal was for three years with an $8.583 AYV.

But a player such as Perez would earn about $1.5M his first three seasons combined. For a guy who’s going to pitch about 70-75 innings per season, the choice seems obvious, in theory.

Of course, the real world can blow such theories to hell. The Cardinals basically had to sign an “established closer” back in 2002 because Dave Veres wasn’t getting the job done and because there were no internal options (where have you gone, Jimmy Journell and Scotty Layfield?). Before that, the ninth inning was given to the likes of Ricky F. Bottalico, Juan Acevedo and Jeff Brantley. Getting Isringhausen was like getting a used BMW after years of driving a busted-ass 1987 Oldsmobile Cutlass Ciera.

But now, having a guy like Chris Perez potentially gives you the flexibility to allocate precious payroll space away from the bullpen and into higher-value areas.

Whither the whiffs?

Opening Day is 10 days away, which means its time to start fretting about the various Cardinals shortcomings.

Some folks are whispering about Albert Pujols’ slow spring. Through Wednesday’s games, your pal and mine is batting a pedestrian .260/.302/.380 with exactly zero home runs in 17 games. Call me crazy, but I’m not worried about it. I think he’s earned the occasional rough patch, don’t you think?

What is bugging me, though, is the starting rotation. Don’t get me wrong; the results have been brilliant: Through 78.1 spring innings, the likely five starters have compiled a 1.83 ERA and given up only two homers.

What I’m concerned about is how those excellent results are being achieved. Specifically, where are the strikeouts? Here are the starting five’s innings pitched and K/9 rates:

• Adam Wainwright: 21.2 IP, 3.73 K/9
• Anthony Reyes: 16, 3.94
• Chris Carpenter: 14.2, 4.91
• Braden Looper: 14, 3.86
• Kip Wells: 12, 6.75

Granted, those are small sample sizes taken individually, but total the numbers up and you get a 4.48 K/9 rate for those 78.1 IP. You sure can’t argue with the results, but it’s hard to sustain them with such a low strikeout rate and a BABIP of roughly .237.

Yes, it’s still only spring training, and the bulk of those innings pitched can be credited to just getting back into playing shape. But we’re now deep enough into spring that the starters are getting stretched out to 6-plus innings each time they take the bump. If the low strikeout rate continues into these longer starts, then there should be some legitimate concern.

UPDATE: Carpenter has whiffed six Marlins through six innings during Thursday’s tilt. Thanks for smashing my whole argument to pieces, Chris.

Bats being swung in anger

There is actual baseball being played today.

A Cardinals team made up of prospects and longshots is taking on Florida Atlantic University, and you can follow the “action” with this nifty Gametracker (hat tip to the ever-awesome LBoros).

After two innings, the Cardinals lead 1-0 after Travis Hanson doubled and Ryan Ludwick singled him home in the first.

It would be exceedingly lame to try to liveblog this, but it’s hard to resist.

UPDATE 12:49 pm: Troy Cate, the Cardinals starter is done after two innings, allowing one hit and striking out two. Kelvin Jimenez in for Cate. Cardinals threatening in the bottom of the third; bases loaded and one out.

UPDATE 1:08 pm: Dennis Dove on in relief of Jimenez, who pitched two perfect innings, striking out three. Score remains 1-0 Cardinals.

UPDATE 1:31 pm: The Cardinals pick up a run on a failed bases-loaded pickoff attempt by Florida Atlantic catcher Travis Ozga; Hanson scampers home to make it 2-0.

UPDATE 1:46 pm: Ludwick picks up another RBI on a sacrifice fly to score Colby Rasmus. Score is 3-0 heading into the top of the seventh, where Mark Worrell is on in relief of Dove, who strikes out two in two perfect frames.

UPDATE 2:04 pm: Florida Atlantic comes back with two runs in the seventh off Worrell: a homer, triple and double, nearly a reverse natural cycle.

UPDATE 2:21 pm: Looks like seven innings is all they are going. Cards win. Troy Cate the “winning pitcher,” and Mark Worrell gets the “save.” I’m not sure if you can glean anything meaningful from today’s tilt, but it was nice that people wearing Cardinals unis were playing baseball today.

Pitching change

(Jon Way/The Associated Press)

Who fills out the Cardinals rotation behind Chris Carpenter will be the most closely watched spring theme.

While Tony La Russa has the final decision and says that the six or seven dudes vying for the other four slots are “even,” Dave Duncan apparently has a different idea:

According to Duncan though, Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper will get “priority” during spring training.

“You know what I think about Dave Duncan, and if he makes that claim that we’ve got five guys and the other two guys or three guys have to show something extra to nudge one of them aside, then he’s thought about that and he understands the pitcher better than I do, so we’ll go with that,” La Russa said. “But down deep, and I want to make sure I say this when he’s not around, I don’t agree with that.”

TLR, ever the diplomat. Sure, he has to say the right things to the media mopes, but deep down he has to realize there’s only competition for the No. 5 spot. Or is he willing to go with a rotation of Carpenter, Wells, Looper, Ryan Franklin and Brad Thompson? Methinks not.

This is a baseball

(Duane Burleson/AP)

Tigers manager Jim Leyland kicked off Spring Training on Friday by holding pitchers fielding practice.

You remember why, don’t you?

Normally, a PFP sesh is not the most thrilling story to chase during Spring Training, but the Detroit pitching staff’s record-setting fielding incompetence during the World Series brought about 50 media mopes to Friday’s drills.

Among them was The Old Grey Lady’s Jack Curry, who describes the pitcher-covering-first drill:

A coach tapped a grounder to first. Joel Zumaya dashed off the mound toward the base. He kept his glove high, searched for first, then muffed the throw. The ball fell at Zumaya’s feet for his first miscue of spring training.

I guess old habits die hard.

Spring is here again

… although you wouldn’t know it by the foot of snow we have on the ground here.

Thursday is the momentous day during which pitchers and catchers are to officially report to Spring Training, although if you’re an everyday player just wanting to make the team, you would have reported yesterday.

Jayson Stark at The Worldwide Leader has run through his list of what he finds intriguing this spring, and he gives the Cardinals the Led Zeppelin treatment, not showing a whole lotta love for the local sports team.

In his second most intriguing “story line” (I loathe that expression) for this spring, Stark asks, “Who stole the champs’ rotation?” Good question, Jay. Stark also ranks the Cardinals first in his list of “most unimproved NL teams,” ahead of the Mets and the Nationals. He again trots out the churn in the rotation as the main culprit.

While I actually enjoy Stark’s ravings (when I don’t have to pay for them), it’s not the rotation that will be the sorest spot this spring. In fact, I look at the rotation, unsettled as it is, as no worse than at this point last year. Potentially better, even, a topic I’d like to address later when time permits.

It’s the bullpen, though, that I’m most worried about. At the top of the chart is Jason Isringhausen. By all accounts, Izzy is expected to make his spring debut on time and be ready to close games come April. If that’s the case, then Adam Wainwright will slide into the rotation, which creates Bullpen Hole No. 1.

And all this talk about converting Braden Looper into the No. 5 starter still hasn’t quieted down. You’ve read the numbers (his 572 career major-league appearances without a start; his not-so-hot line vs. lefties) ad infinitum. Let’s just say I’m not down with the idea. But if he does prove the haters wrong (or if Brad Thompson beats him out), that creates Bullpen Hole No. 2.

But “Have no fear,” you say. “Ryan Franklin is here to save the day!” That might be a bit dramatic, but the one-time steroid cheat can step in to either fill that No. 5 spot in the rotation or fill Looper or Thompson’s role in the pen, a role he didn’t entirely suck at last year.

Fine, but that still leaves a Wainwright-sized hole in the pen. Maybe Tony La Russa will stick with his Bullpen Brats plan and move Josh Kinney into the right-handed set-up role. Or maybe he’ll revert to his veteran-loving ways and give the ball to 38-year-old Russ Springer, who can get a strikeout but who’s also been inconsistent the past few seasons.

Will TLR carry three lefties? Even if he does, there are still six guys battling for those three spots: Tyler Johnson, whose trial by fire in the playoffs proved his viability as a major-league reliever; Randy Flores, who recently re-upped for two years; Ricardo Rincon (remember him?), in the second year of his two-year deal; Chris Narveson, who is out of options and must pitch his way onto the roster; Randy Keisler, who tossed 10 league-average innings for Oakland last season; and Troy Cate, who hasn’t been above Double-A since 2003 but dominated the Mexican Winter League this season.

It likely not tenable to carry three lefties, even with a seven-man bullpen unless there’s some sort of swingman-timeshare going on with Looper, Thompson and/or Franklin. But that would leave one of those three out, to say nothing of where Josh Hancock would fit in.

So scratch the three-lefty idea. That means Cate is probably headed to Memphis if it’s thought he has major-league potential, otherwise it’s back to Springfield. Keisler’s likely ticketed for Triple-A as well. There is money tied up in Rincon and Flores (to a lesser extent), but it would be foolish to send T.J. back to Memphis. It seems unlikely that ownership will be willing to swallow $1.45 million if Rincon were DFA’d, so maybe there’s a trade in the works. But whoever would want an aging and injury-rehabbed Rincon is anyone’s guess.

Let’s subtract Rincon from the mix and look at a possible seven-man bullpen:

• Isringhausen
• Kinney
• Johnson
• Flores
• Springer
• Hancock
• Looper/Thompson/Franklin

That still leaves one guy out of the ‘pen if the rotating-swingman option is used (which is a ridiculous construct anyway), and as far as I can tell, Hancock is not under contract for 2007 nor is he arbitration-eligible. Absent any information regarding their options, Hancock and Thompson could be competing to see who doesn’t go to Memphis. A seven-man pen could look like this then:

• Isringhausen
• Kinney
• Johnson
• Flores
• Springer
• Looper/Franklin
• Hancock/Thompson

In this scenario, the winner of the Looper/Franklin battle would move to the rotation, while the loser of the Hancock/Thompson battle would go to Memphis. Am I dumb or just stupid?

He’s been here for years

After a wildly inconsistent 2006 season that ended early because of hip surgery, Jason Isringhausen is reportedly throwing without discomfort according to the Post-Dispatch:

Isringhausen threw 20 pitches without discomfort before laying out a schedule that would have him ready for the defending world champions’ season opener April 1.

That’s good news on two fronts:

• A pain-free Izzy is an effective Izzy. His pitching woes last season are attributable to his degenerative hip.
• With Izzy re-assuming the closer’s role, Adam Wainwright’s move to the rotation is solidified. I’d much rather have 180-plus good innings from Wainwright than just 70 great innings.

What should be mildly concerning to Cardinals fans, though, is what Izzy said the doctor told him:

The doctor said this could give me another four years.

We all love Isringhausen, but I’m not sure we have the collective stomach to sweat through possibly four more years’ worth of ninth innings from him.

Fortunately, help is on the way. The optimistic sort might hope that Chris Perez, whom Baseball America ranks as the team’s No. 3 prospect, is on the fast track to the big club.

He more or less dominated the low-A Midwest League in 2006, his first pro season. He should start this season at High-A Palm Beach, and if he can bring his walk rate under control (especially vs. lefties) he’s going to tear through the minor leagues.

The Cardinals hold an $8 million option (or a $1.25M buyout) for 2008 on Isringhausen. If he does well closing this season, he’ll be back with Perez possibly setting up for him.

Of course, the really wishful thinkers among us might hope for a September call-up for Perez this season and him taking over the closer’s role full time in 2008.