The Cardinals have written another chapter in their bizarre novel titled “How I Spent My 2005 Offseason.” This chapter is called “Sidney Ponson.”
That Sidney Ponson. Since it’s so near Christmas, I’ll spare you the horror of listing his stats for the past two seasons.
Indeed, Sir Drinks-a-lot signed a one-year deal with St. Louis on Wednesday. Reports say it will pay him a $1M base, with $1.5M more possible through incentives based on the number of starts, as well as a full no-trade clause. On hearing the news, my first thought was, “Dude, Sidney M.F. Ponson?” My second thought was, “Well, a trade for an outfielder must be in the works.” That’s the conventional wisdom, anyway. My third thought is that maybe management isn’t keen on gift-wrapping the No. 5 for Anthony Reyes, and that Ponson represents competition of sorts for that No. 5, and as such, Jason Marquis might not be going anywhere. But as I prepare to post this, my latest thought is that if the club is giving him incentives based on the number of starts AND a full NTC, then they are 100% committed to having Ponson in the rotation. That puts Marquis on the block or Reyes in the minors.
But if a trade for an outfielder is in the works, one would have to think the Reyes boy is more attractive than Marquis in any deal. He’s young, cheap and has a much higher ceiling than Marquis, the main name that has been thrown around various rumor musings. Marquis stands to make $5M or so in 2006 (with impending free agency after ’06), either in arbitration or in a one-year deal to keep him out, so any deal involving him is not likely to bring an impact OF in return unless multiple players are involved, complicating things.
We here at The 26th Man are pretty simple, so for fun, let’s throw out some possibilities. I tried to pick teams that not only had an outfield surplus but also holes in their rotations. Some were one or the other. And, of course, these are my best guesses; some proposals maybe woefully but unintentionally lopsided. As always, feel free to comment. Here goes:
Marquis to the Brewers for Carlos Lee and cash: Straight up, this deal would involve a rather large payroll bump for the Cardinals: The Brewers picked up El Caballo’s 2006 option at $8.5M, while Marquis will get about $5M. Like Marquis, Lee is a free agent after the 2006 season. Given that, one could infer at least similar or better stats in 2006 to what he put up in 2005: .265/.324/.487, with 32 homers and 114 RBI. He also hit 31 HR each in 2003 and 2004. He hits righties and lefties roughly the same, and in 2005 hit quite a bit better away from Miller Park. He’s not particularly handy with the leather, but man, would he look good in the Cards’ cleanup spot.
Milwaukee has a couple of kids in Dave Krynzel and Brad Nelson (as well as Gabe Gross, whom they received in the Lyle Overbay trade) that could step in for Lee. As for Marquis, he could be Milwaukee’s No. 3 behind Ben Sheets and Doug Davis, and ahead of Chris Capuano and Dave Bush, also obtained from Toronto in the Overbay trade.
Marquis and cash to the Mets for Victor Diaz and a prospect: I’m gonna pretend I’m Ken Rosenthal and propose this one solely on the basis of geography. Marquis is from Shaolin (Staten Island, for those not in the know) and might relish the chance to pitch close to home, especially for a team as radically upgraded as the Mets. Diaz, meanwhile, went buckwild (.292/.432/.538 in April) during the early-season absence of Mike Cameron but quickly and harshly fell back to Earth after that scorching April. He finished the season .257/.329/.438 with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 41 runs in 313 PA.
The Mets don’t really have an opening in the rotation unless they were to move someone like Steve Trachsel or Kris Benson.
Marquis and cash? to the Phillies for Jason Michaels: Michaels’ name had been bandied about the Cardinals blogosphere during the winter meetings. He isn’t much of a homer threat, but he does have a pretty good walk rate. Plus, the Phillies’ acquisition of Aaron Rowand left Michaels’ without a starting job. He played all three OF spots in 2005, with the majority of innings coming in CF. One scenario could have Michaels holding down the fort in a corner, then taking over for Edmonds in center after 2007. He beat up lefthanded pitching in 2005 to the tune of a .323 BA and .854 OPS. His righty split was .289/.778, which certainly is acceptable. As a second-year arbitration-eligible player, he could get north of $900K in 2006.
Marquis, meanwhile, might thrive in Philly, given his groundball tendencies. Citizen’s Bank Park needs guys who can keep the ball on the ground. He could slot in after Brett Myers, Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle, and ahead of Gavin Floyd.
Marquis to the Rangers for Kevin Mench: This particular deal also has been talked up as of late in the blogs. Mench doesn’t walk all that much but also doesn’t strike out very much for someone with decent pop. While he knocks around LH pitching (.296, .980!), he’s not as destructive against righties (.255, .743), and his home/away splits favor the Bandbox in Arlington. Mench is still two years away from free agency, but if Austin Kearns (a player similar to Mench per Baseball Reference) could get $900K in 2005, he ought to be able to move into that neighborhood in 2006.
The Rangers are dying for pitching, so they certainly might welcome Marquis’ talent at keeping the ball on the ground.
Fire away with your comments.
