Keis to the game

At first I thought I may have jinxed Randy Keisler.

A few hours after the Soap in the Towel Award post, Keisler took the bump against the hated (by me, at least) Giants. After an easy first inning, the Keez found himself in trouble each inning he pitched afterward.

Especially worrisome was the bottom of the fourth. Giants second baseman Ray Durham led off the inning with a triple, and Keez then walked Bengie “Not Yadier” Molina and Pedro Feliz (or Peter Happy, if you prefer) to load the bases with nobody out.

According to TangoTiger’s Run Expectancy Matrix, with the sacks jacked and nobody out, the Giants were set up to score 2.417 runs in that inning. Randy Winn came to the plate and flied out to left, plating Durham for one of those runs, reducing the RE to .971. Giants manager Bruce Bochy then elected to give up an out by having old friend Matt Morris sacrifice (.634 RE). The Keez then got Omar Vizquel to foul out to end the threat, thereby preserving the lead.

Keisler managed to get through five innings and thus avoided the ignominy of becoming the first entry on the SitTA leaderboard. And he didn’t seem to pitch as poorly as his rather unsightly line indicated. His breaking ball was working better than his previous start, and he more or less was hitting Yadier Molina’s target.

His biggest problem was home plate umpire Gerry Davis’ strike zone, which was all over the place. At least Davis was squeezing both pitchers equally, as MattyMo had issues as well. Pitches that were six inches off the plate or low were called strikes, and pitches that looked good were called balls. And the next inning, the outcomes of those same pitches likely were reversed.

Occasionally it seemed that the amorphous strike zone was getting the better of Keisler, judging by his body language: lots of shaking heads and Elvis-like lip sneers.

Disjointed

The Cardinals’ $63.5 million ace is having some elbow problems:

Cardinals staff ace Chris Carpenter was placed on the 15-day disabled list Monday after an MRI exam in St. Louis revealed arthritis and a previously undiscovered impingement in his right elbow.

Ouch. That doesn’t bode well for the team’s immediate future. We may be looking at a month’s worth of starts from Carl Showalter doppelganger Randy Keisler.

But what about the long-term prognosis? Curiosity got the better of me, so I asked an expert, which of course means Google. You can learn a lot from our Google overlords. For example:

The elbow is a complex joint consisting of 3 true joints that function as 1 joint.

I did not know that. But what I do know is that the human body is not built to throw a 5-ounce sphere 100 or more times during the course of two to three hours once every five days. The above-referenced article confirms that:

Activity involving forceful elbow extension can cause triceps tendinosis or posterior impingement syndrome. Any activity that causes increased valgus stress on the elbow can cause ulnar nerve injury, posterior impingement syndrome, or olecranon stress fractures. These injuries are common in throwing sports and overhead racquet sports.

Bingo. Posterior impingement syndrome. Which actually sounds vaguely dirty. So what is Carp looking at? Looks like rest and some Aleve:

Rest does not mean cessation of activity, which can lead to deconditioning, but rather modified activity, which does not aggravate the injury. … Medications used include nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and, very rarely, corticosteroids.

The article doesn’t give any sort of concrete timetable for return but says the outlook is good as long as he isn’t rushed back.

Prognosis of most overuse injuries is very good, as long as a thorough rehabilitation program is completed.

Sounds good. Oh, what the hell… I’ll bust out the old sign. It worked well enough last year.

Logjammin’

With the national media seemingly focused on the Cardinals’ rotation, I find the outfield situation much more vexing.

Even when at full health, the starting troika has its flaws. But with one, and possibly two, starters slated to open the season on the disabled list, a spot or two could open up for the multitude of fourth/fifth outfielders still in camp.

Juan Encarnacion is a near-lock to kick off 2007 on the D.L., a distinction that Jim Edmonds was supposed to share. But Edmonds got three innings Sunday in his first Grapefruit League action and played Monday and Tuesday as well. Even if he’s not swinging the bat well, he can contribute by taking his walks and playing his usual nifty defense.

So let’s just assume that just one free spot will open. And in Encarnacion’s absence, Scott Spiezio will get the bulk of the time in right field, which means after Aaron Miles and Gary Bennett, there will be three bench spots left. Here’s who should get in:

• John Rodriguez. J-Rod apparently has taken up residence in the John Gall Memorial Tony La Russa Doghouse. Sure, Rodriguez hasn’t gotten a hit since St. Patrick’s Day, but that’s also the last time he got more than two plate appearances in a game. Maybe his power surge in 2005 was a fluke, but he has shown an ability to get on base, a quality that doesn’t exist in this lineup beyond the No. 5 hole.
• Skip “Jared” Schumaker. The Skipster is slugging .568 so far this spring, but the bulk of that is from his two-homer game March 7. His defense is what is going to book his trip to St. Louis. Think of him as So Taguchi, only a decade younger and not Japanese.
• So Taguchi. Yes, carrying Schumaker and SoTags is an exercise in redundancy. But Preston Wilson has been terrible this spring, and you know TLR couldn’t start the season without his beloved Taguchi. P-Dub, thanks for your help last season. Now pack up your trash and get out.

So who gets whacked once Encarnacion comes back? Logic dictates that it would be Taguchi, but his is a charmed existence under La Russa. The smart money is on Rodriguez, unfortunately. Even more unfortunately, there’s no room in the Memphis outfield, either. He can be a useful part-time contributor at the major-league level. If he can’t do it in St. Louis, make a deal with a team who can make room for him.

Cardinals officials imPerezed by reliever

After being drafted in the first supplemental round last June, Chris Perez more or less dominated Midwest League hitters in 25 appearances.

And according to Kary Booher of the Springfield (Mo.) News-Leader, Perez this spring has picked up where he left off:

Initially and conservatively penciled in to close for High-A Palm Beach this season, Perez is blowtorching his way through spring training at such a dizzying pace, St. Louis’ minor league personnel are beginning to question whether the original plan ought to be scrapped.

Now it appears he could break camp as the anchor of the Springfield Cardinals bullpen…

Taking a page out of Erik’s book, Perez’s cheese sits in the low to mid-90s, while his slider, rated by Baseball America as the organization’s best, is death to right-handers. Portsiders, though, were less impressed by it, as evidenced by Perez’s generous walk rate to lefties.

If he does start the season in Double-A and can figure out a way to solve lefties, we could see Perez enjoying a delicious cup of fair-trade coffee with the big club in September. He then could be setting up for Jason Isringhausen in 2008, unless the club declines Izzy’s $8 million option…

While I do find it implausible that the club would give Perez the keys to the ninth inning in 2008 (that’ll happen in 2009), it does highlight what I think is a better, cheaper way to construct a bullpen.

Instead of paying retail for an “established closer,” it would be much more cost-effective to grow your own power arms to put in that role. Take Isringhausen’s contracts, for example. His first, signed in 2002 was for four years at an average yearly value of $6.75M. The extension he signed before 2005 to replace the final two years of the first deal was for three years with an $8.583 AYV.

But a player such as Perez would earn about $1.5M his first three seasons combined. For a guy who’s going to pitch about 70-75 innings per season, the choice seems obvious, in theory.

Of course, the real world can blow such theories to hell. The Cardinals basically had to sign an “established closer” back in 2002 because Dave Veres wasn’t getting the job done and because there were no internal options (where have you gone, Jimmy Journell and Scotty Layfield?). Before that, the ninth inning was given to the likes of Ricky F. Bottalico, Juan Acevedo and Jeff Brantley. Getting Isringhausen was like getting a used BMW after years of driving a busted-ass 1987 Oldsmobile Cutlass Ciera.

But now, having a guy like Chris Perez potentially gives you the flexibility to allocate precious payroll space away from the bullpen and into higher-value areas.

Whither the whiffs?

Opening Day is 10 days away, which means its time to start fretting about the various Cardinals shortcomings.

Some folks are whispering about Albert Pujols’ slow spring. Through Wednesday’s games, your pal and mine is batting a pedestrian .260/.302/.380 with exactly zero home runs in 17 games. Call me crazy, but I’m not worried about it. I think he’s earned the occasional rough patch, don’t you think?

What is bugging me, though, is the starting rotation. Don’t get me wrong; the results have been brilliant: Through 78.1 spring innings, the likely five starters have compiled a 1.83 ERA and given up only two homers.

What I’m concerned about is how those excellent results are being achieved. Specifically, where are the strikeouts? Here are the starting five’s innings pitched and K/9 rates:

• Adam Wainwright: 21.2 IP, 3.73 K/9
• Anthony Reyes: 16, 3.94
• Chris Carpenter: 14.2, 4.91
• Braden Looper: 14, 3.86
• Kip Wells: 12, 6.75

Granted, those are small sample sizes taken individually, but total the numbers up and you get a 4.48 K/9 rate for those 78.1 IP. You sure can’t argue with the results, but it’s hard to sustain them with such a low strikeout rate and a BABIP of roughly .237.

Yes, it’s still only spring training, and the bulk of those innings pitched can be credited to just getting back into playing shape. But we’re now deep enough into spring that the starters are getting stretched out to 6-plus innings each time they take the bump. If the low strikeout rate continues into these longer starts, then there should be some legitimate concern.

UPDATE: Carpenter has whiffed six Marlins through six innings during Thursday’s tilt. Thanks for smashing my whole argument to pieces, Chris.

Spring is here again

… although you wouldn’t know it by the foot of snow we have on the ground here.

Thursday is the momentous day during which pitchers and catchers are to officially report to Spring Training, although if you’re an everyday player just wanting to make the team, you would have reported yesterday.

Jayson Stark at The Worldwide Leader has run through his list of what he finds intriguing this spring, and he gives the Cardinals the Led Zeppelin treatment, not showing a whole lotta love for the local sports team.

In his second most intriguing “story line” (I loathe that expression) for this spring, Stark asks, “Who stole the champs’ rotation?” Good question, Jay. Stark also ranks the Cardinals first in his list of “most unimproved NL teams,” ahead of the Mets and the Nationals. He again trots out the churn in the rotation as the main culprit.

While I actually enjoy Stark’s ravings (when I don’t have to pay for them), it’s not the rotation that will be the sorest spot this spring. In fact, I look at the rotation, unsettled as it is, as no worse than at this point last year. Potentially better, even, a topic I’d like to address later when time permits.

It’s the bullpen, though, that I’m most worried about. At the top of the chart is Jason Isringhausen. By all accounts, Izzy is expected to make his spring debut on time and be ready to close games come April. If that’s the case, then Adam Wainwright will slide into the rotation, which creates Bullpen Hole No. 1.

And all this talk about converting Braden Looper into the No. 5 starter still hasn’t quieted down. You’ve read the numbers (his 572 career major-league appearances without a start; his not-so-hot line vs. lefties) ad infinitum. Let’s just say I’m not down with the idea. But if he does prove the haters wrong (or if Brad Thompson beats him out), that creates Bullpen Hole No. 2.

But “Have no fear,” you say. “Ryan Franklin is here to save the day!” That might be a bit dramatic, but the one-time steroid cheat can step in to either fill that No. 5 spot in the rotation or fill Looper or Thompson’s role in the pen, a role he didn’t entirely suck at last year.

Fine, but that still leaves a Wainwright-sized hole in the pen. Maybe Tony La Russa will stick with his Bullpen Brats plan and move Josh Kinney into the right-handed set-up role. Or maybe he’ll revert to his veteran-loving ways and give the ball to 38-year-old Russ Springer, who can get a strikeout but who’s also been inconsistent the past few seasons.

Will TLR carry three lefties? Even if he does, there are still six guys battling for those three spots: Tyler Johnson, whose trial by fire in the playoffs proved his viability as a major-league reliever; Randy Flores, who recently re-upped for two years; Ricardo Rincon (remember him?), in the second year of his two-year deal; Chris Narveson, who is out of options and must pitch his way onto the roster; Randy Keisler, who tossed 10 league-average innings for Oakland last season; and Troy Cate, who hasn’t been above Double-A since 2003 but dominated the Mexican Winter League this season.

It likely not tenable to carry three lefties, even with a seven-man bullpen unless there’s some sort of swingman-timeshare going on with Looper, Thompson and/or Franklin. But that would leave one of those three out, to say nothing of where Josh Hancock would fit in.

So scratch the three-lefty idea. That means Cate is probably headed to Memphis if it’s thought he has major-league potential, otherwise it’s back to Springfield. Keisler’s likely ticketed for Triple-A as well. There is money tied up in Rincon and Flores (to a lesser extent), but it would be foolish to send T.J. back to Memphis. It seems unlikely that ownership will be willing to swallow $1.45 million if Rincon were DFA’d, so maybe there’s a trade in the works. But whoever would want an aging and injury-rehabbed Rincon is anyone’s guess.

Let’s subtract Rincon from the mix and look at a possible seven-man bullpen:

• Isringhausen
• Kinney
• Johnson
• Flores
• Springer
• Hancock
• Looper/Thompson/Franklin

That still leaves one guy out of the ‘pen if the rotating-swingman option is used (which is a ridiculous construct anyway), and as far as I can tell, Hancock is not under contract for 2007 nor is he arbitration-eligible. Absent any information regarding their options, Hancock and Thompson could be competing to see who doesn’t go to Memphis. A seven-man pen could look like this then:

• Isringhausen
• Kinney
• Johnson
• Flores
• Springer
• Looper/Franklin
• Hancock/Thompson

In this scenario, the winner of the Looper/Franklin battle would move to the rotation, while the loser of the Hancock/Thompson battle would go to Memphis. Am I dumb or just stupid?

Maine source

In the biggest game of his life, Mets starter John Maine delivered.

After a shaky first inning in which he allowed two hits and hit a batter to load the bases, Maine did to the Cardinals what Chuck D does to corny MCs: He shut ‘em down. Typing this in the bottom of the eighth, you have to figure that he’d be the player of the game. (update 10:16 p.m.: Yup.)

At least the Cardinals made it interesting in the ninth. So Taguchi, you rascal, you.

Other pointed observations:

• Maine’s Cardinals counterpart, Chris Carpenter, had a good outing, at least statistically speaking: Two runs on seven hits in six innings pitched with four strikeouts on only 76 pitches. But watching him pitch, he didn’t look like he was comfortable on the mound. He also didn’t seem to have brought his Uncle Charlie with him. Perhaps it was part of the game plan, but during the first two innings, Carpenter threw what seemed like 95 percent fastballs. After getting Carlos Delgado to fly out in the first inning on his first curveball (his 11th pitch), he threw it only sporadically until the sixth, when it seemed he had gotten the handle on it. By then, it was too late.
• The bottom of the seventh turned out to be the defining inning. After Michael Tucker singled with two outs, it seemed fairly obvious that he was going to attempt a steal. A pitchout was called, but Yadier Molina airmailed the throw. David Eckstein’s diving play to keep Jose Reyes’ single in the infield temporarily saved a run, but inexplicably (at least to me), no one covered when Reyes took off for second. Why would you let another potential insurance runner get into scoring position like that?
• Speaking of Molina airmailing throws, Reyes’ first stolen base attempt provided a bit of levity in the third inning. Molina’s throw was high and got by Belliard, who ended up falling on top of Reyes. Replays showed that Belliard purposely landed on Reyes to keep him from advancing to third. No one in the Fox booth mentioned it, but it was as obvious as it was comical.
• Albert Pujols fell into his old habit of chasing offspeed stuff low and away, striking out on such a pitch in the fifth. He did manage a single on another such a pitch in the eighth. The first couple seasons of his career, offspeed stuff low and away was the lone hole in his swing, one that he eventually learned to close. But when he’s swinging at that stuff now, you know he’s pressing.
• Scott Rolen may be on a game-to-game basis when it comes to starting. After leaving the bases loaded in the first and grounding into a double play to end the sixth, his double in the ninth may have bought him one more start. He looks helpless when swinging at anything above the knees. I’d hate to see him become a really expensive defensive replacement.
• Willie Randolph opting to use Guillermo Mota instead of Pedro Feliciano to face a pinch-hitting Chris Duncan in the seventh seemed to be a TLR-esque calculated risk. After Duncan was the top of the order in Eckstein, Scott Spiezio (who sports a .251/.363/.555 line vs. RHP) and Pujols. Had Duncan gotten on, Mota still would have had more or less favorable matchups, which were rendered moot when Duncan grounded into a double play.

And finally, it seemed like the fans at Shea Stadium came correct, in full effect with all their hoes in check. On virtually every two-strike count, no matter how many outs, no matter the inning, they were on their feet screaming.

That said, there also was a very vocal and very stupid contingent of fans in attendance. The first six batters that came to the plate in the bottom of the first were met with mad boos. I can understand booing Pujols, and Eckstein might be marginally booable, too, but why Juan Encarnacion and Rolen too? Those guys have done jack squat this series. It seemed like a subset of fans felt the need to uphold the stereotype of jerkweed New York sports fans. In one of the few non-game camera shots that didn’t show Jose Reyes in the dugout, I caught a glimpse of one fan’s T-shirt, which read: “Cardinals fans take it in the Pujols.” Gee, I’d never heard that one before… you come up with that on your own, chief?

Whatever. All that matters is that we didn’t close out the NLCS early. Thursday we face Darren Oliver Perez. Let’s go get ‘em, boys.

On the Cy

The race for the Cy Young Award makes this time of year interesting, with each contender’s start magnified. As I type this, our own Chris Carpenter is pitching against the Astros.

Over at Viva El Birdos, LBoros and his counterpart at the AZ Snake Pit, each take a turn touting his team’s leading Cy candidate (Carp for the Cards; Brandon Webb for the D-Bags) using a plethora of statistical evidence to state their cases.

Well, I have what I feel is a pretty good method of determining who’s the better pitcher. Say what you will about “statistics” and “proof”; the measuring stick I use is my fantasy league’s scoring system.

Laugh if you want, but it correctly predicted all of last year’s Cy and MVP winners. So one year’s correctitude means it’s foolproof, right? Both pitchers are tops in the N.L., so let’s look at the numbers (as of Sept. 20):

Carpenter, Chris SP STL: 577
Webb, Brandon, SP, ARI: 567

Wow, that’s closer than I thought it would be. Let’s take a look at the numbers when we toss out points awarded and subtracted for wins and losses:

Carpenter: 457
Webb: 437

Ahhh… that’s a little bit better. So, there you have it, folks. If the season ended today, Carp will have earned his second Cy Young.

(For the record, Johan Santan is far and away destroying his A.L. counterparts. To compare, his decisions-added points total is 696, compared with Carp’s 577. Awesome.)

The Mark Mulder Situation

The Associated Press is reporting that Mark Mulder will undergo arthroscopic surgery next week to repair the rotator cuff in his shoulder.

Ignoring the fact that this announcement contradicts what both Mulder and management have said in the past, should the Cardinals bring him back after his surgery?

Assuming he’d be able to pitch in 2007, I don’t think a heavily incentive-laden one-year deal, a la Matt Morris, is out of the question.

Something along the lines of:

• $1 million base
• $1 million bonus for reaching 30 starts

Then once he hits the 30 starts threshold, the ERA incentives kick in:

• $1M for each .25 run below 4.00
• $2M for each .25 run below 3.00

His salaries under various scenarios:

1. 30+ starts, 3.85 ERA: $2M
2. 30+ starts, 3.67 ERA: $3M
3. 30+ starts, 3.40 ERA: $4M
4. 30+ starts, 3.12 ERA: $5M
5. 30+ starts, 2.85 ERA: $6M
6. 30+ starts, 2.67 ERA: $8M
7. 30+ starts, 2.40 ERA: $10M

I have no idea if incentivizing ERA even is legal under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, but I would think that each scenario would represent a good chunk of change for one man while also providing value for the team. Who wouldn’t pay $5M for scenario 4? It may seem low at first, but it serves as a way to equalize value when you factor in his salary from his atrocious 2006. And there’s not a GM alive who wouldn’t shell out $10M to get a sub-2.50 ERA from a starter.

It could very well turn out that I’m hitting the glass pipe with regards to this potential contract, but it came to me while I was riding my bike the other day, so I may have just been high off the endorphins.

Anatomy of a dinger

The Cardinals blogosphere certainly is atwitter about our man Sno Cones’ recent walk-off heroics.

But Gary Bennett’s grand slam didn’t happen in a vacuum. He had mad help from his teammates as well as his opponents Sunday. Check it:

Albert Pujols led off the ninth with a single. When imposing his will to win, he needn’t be directly involved to make an impact. I think all of us knew he was going to steal, and off he was against Bob Howry (although it looked as if his first couple steps were in mud).

Scott Rolen then bounced one up the middle. Ronny Cedeno fielded it just to the left of second base. Could he have stepped on second to get the gaffle-minded Pujols? Maybe, but he didn’t. Cubs mistake No. 1.

Juan Encarnacion then grounded to third. Aramis Ramirez scooped it up and seemed to freeze for a split-second before he threw to first. That hesitation allowed a hustling Instant Breakfast to beat the throw. Cubs mistake No. 2. And Pujols advanced to third after seeing no one covering the bag. Cubs mistake No. 3.

Ronnie Belliard, the Gangsta of Glove, finessed a walk to load the bases.

Aaron Miles then tapped a grounder to third. Ramirez forced Pujols at home, but Miles, because he’s Aaron Miles, was digging the whole way and beat Michael “Back Alley” Barrett’s throw.

Finally, Bennett unloaded on Cubs mistake No. 4:

(thanks to VEB commenter Hardcore Legend for the screen capture)